Inflation
Finnish paper finds forecast errors correlate with subjective uncertainty, not 'disagreement'
Paper analyses forecasts in the ECB's Survey of Professional Forecasters and the US Survey of Professional Forecasters to find the best predictor of errors
Saudi inflation expected to fall below 3% in 2014
Country's cost of living index peaked at 4% last April before inflationary pressures in the transport and restaurant sectors abated during second half of the year
Price-setters still expect Sarb to miss inflation target
The South African Reserve Bank has succeeded in persuading analysts it will keep inflation within its target band, but price-setters' expectations remain higher
One in five Albanians has never heard of current or savings accounts
According to survey data analysed in Bank of Albania working paper, less than half of respondents know the concept of interest rates, but 80% understands the workings of inflation
Independence no substitute for rules-based policy
Thomas Cargill summarises the conclusions of four papers by world-leading economists on the issue of central bank governance and finds independence is overrated
'Cornered' Argentina introduces new inflation index
New inflation index announced by the government yesterday is a step in the right direction, according to analysts, who nevertheless remain concerned about how data is collected
IMF mission to Iran urges monetary tightening to ‘entrench' recent disinflation
Article IV statement calls for simplified central bank mandate and greater focus on price stability; says new authorities are ‘well aware of challenges and need to advance reforms'
ECB holds rates despite continued disinflation
European Central Bank holds refinance rate at 0.25% and shuns additional policy instruments despite inflation falling to 0.7%; attention turns to updated and expanded staff forecasts in March
Bank of Ghana brings forward rate decision as falling currency feeds inflation
The central bank's monetary policy committee will meet tomorrow instead of February 19 following further weakening of the cedi; analysts expect rate increase of at least 100 basis points
Kazakhstan experiences 10-year inflation low
Quarterly inflation falls to 0.6% in latest figures; National Bank of Kazakhstan predicts it will increase in the coming quarter but remain in check throughout 2014
Central Bank of Peru revises annual growth and inflation rates downwards
Bank expects inflation, at 3% annualised in November, to converge to 2% target in 2014; IMF projects 2.5%, citing 'well-anchored expectations'
Bangladesh Bank: inflation target ‘may prove challenging’
High food inflation and a pick-up in consumer demand could make it difficult for the Bangladesh Bank to restrain inflation to 7% for the 2014 fiscal year
BoJ mulls ‘more thorough’ communication
Minutes from December meeting reveal policy board members’ concern over market scepticism towards the BoJ’s path back to 2% inflation; suggest clarifying reaction function
Solomon Islands wins IMF support for ‘contractionary’ monetary policy
Central Bank of Solomon Islands maintains tight monetary policy in face of excess liquidity; IMF welcomes stance but tells authorities to implement a wider exchange rate band
Chinese labour costs set to play significant inflation role
Researchers suggest that increases in labour costs do not pass ‘fully’ through to prices in China; warn this could change on the back of ‘recent sizeable growth’ in nominal wages
Lifetime achievement award: Paul Volcker
Paul Volcker’s record of achievement in difficult circumstances continues to provide an inspiration to central bankers throughout the world
History likely to vindicate Fed's crisis policies, says Bernanke
The Federal Reserve has developed ‘all the tools needed' to manage monetary policy; costs of extraordinary measures exaggerated, Bernanke says
BoJ’s Shirai warns against rush for 2% inflation at all costs
Sayuri Shirai says it ‘may be appropriate’ to take longer than two years to meet the central bank’s inflation target of 2%; stresses the importance of achieving the goal in a ‘stable’ manner
Commodity price inflation caused by 'financialisation', RBI paper finds
Research also shows private liquidity is inflationary while official liquidity is not and and that derivative traders, active and passive, have played an important role in inflation dynamics
Philippines governor unperturbed by inflation surge
Amando Tetangco insists the inflation environment is ‘manageable’ despite annual CPI almost doubling in the past four months; central bank hits target for fifth consecutive year
Kuroda draws on lessons from Paul Volcker’s Fed tenure
Bank of Japan governor Haruhiko Kuroda points to Paul Volcker’s success in lowering inflation expectations in the United States as proof of central banks' ability to influence markets
Central Bank of Venezuela to buy country's entire gold production
Central bank in joint bid with state oil company to ‘regularise' production, sales and purchases of the precious metal, which last year accounted for 70% of the bank's international reserves
Bank of Canada's Poloz says economic models 'better source of questions than answers'
Governor warns Canadian household imbalances could eventually result in 'sharp correction'; argues deflation still bigger concern than 'explosion in inflation' prompted by loose monetary policy
Bank of Thailand MPC insists rising inflation is ‘not immediate threat’
Minutes from November meeting show the committee voted to cut rates for the second time in six months despite one member’s concerns that inflation could continue to pick up in 2014