Inflation
Lagarde calls for pre-emptive action on eurozone deflation
IMF managing director says the ECB should act to shore up eurozone inflation and find ways of getting credit to SMEs; Draghi says ECB must pursue price stability by all means necessary
New York Fed launches 'consumer expectations survey'
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York will launch monthly survey on consumer expectations early next year; project anchors newly inaugurated microeconomic research centre
San Fran Fed letter highlights impact of oil prices on inflation expectations
Researchers from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco say consumers update their inflation expectations using a ‘few simple rules of thumb’ – one of which is linked to the price of oil
Polish paper explains perceptions of higher inflation
Economists at the National Bank of Poland construct a consumer perceived price index that reflects the population’s loss aversion to price increases
Lithuania on track to join euro at second time of asking
The Bank of Lithuania has started publishing regular forecasts that keep track of the country’s progress towards meeting the convergence criteria necessary for accession to the eurozone
BSP to stay put on monetary policy following Haiyan
Philippines central bank is not expected to raise rates despite supply bottlenecks causing inflation spikes in the wake of typhoon Haiyan
Kuroda says Japan is on track to hit price target
Bank of Japan governor says the central bank’s QQE has brought about ‘positive developments’ that are spreading throughout financial markets and the real economy; sees inflation hitting 2% by 2015
OECD’s William White fears global economic system is still highly unstable
William White tells Christopher Jeffery he is wary of placing too much reliance on the ‘science’ of monetary or regulatory policy. He also believes the world economic system is still out of balance
Central Bank of Aruba 2012 annual report highlights drop in inflation
Average annual inflation in the Caribbean territory dropped from 4.4% in 2011 to 0.6% last year; says international reserves 'remained adequate'
UK data boost could spell early end to BoE forward guidance
Inflation report out today predicts consumer price inflation will reach 2% target sooner than predicted after sharp drop in October; revised forecast on unemployment may undermine forward guidance
Bundesbank research seeks to disentangle recession and depression
Discussion paper isolates unique features of depressions and booms to separate them out from recessions and expansions; results suggest recent ‘Great Recession’ was not a depression
ECB paper questions quantity theory of money in low-inflation countries
Researchers say evidence for the theory is 'just not there' in countries with low or moderate inflation, but becomes a ‘better fit' when correcting for variation in output growth
'Bold' ECB cuts rates as low inflation settles in
Mario Draghi surprises markets by announcing a cut in the main refi rate in face of falling inflation; opinion differs on whether this is the ECB's last throw of the dice
Fall in OECD inflation highlights advanced economy monetary policy dilemmas
New OECD figures show lower annual inflation rates despite Japanese CPI turning positive; pressure mounts on ECB and Fed to counteract trend, but analysts unsure with what tools
Dollarisation and institutional weakness hamper Congolese monetary policy
IMF paper highlights 'fiscal dominance' and 'lack of authority' as among reasons for central bank's ineffectiveness; strengthening current policy framework remains 'first-best option'
Chilean policy-makers grow concerned over inflation
Central Bank of Chile board members voice concerns over persistently low inflation in their October monetary policy meeting; vote to cut key policy rate for first time in 18 months
Fed paper trials new model for estimating trend inflation
Researchers at the Federal Reserve generate lower estimates of trend inflation in advanced economies by using a multivariate model; still struggle to outperform random walk forecasts
Poland's business cycle largely a function of EU developments
According to IMF paper, eurozone developments explain 50% of Poland's output and interest rate business cycle variance, but only 25% of changes in headline inflation
RBI takes hawkish stance against inflation with another rate hike
Repo rate hike and MSF rate cut bring spread back to its normal level of 100 basis points; ‘material' risk of entrenched inflation could mean another hike is on the way, says DBS economist
Bank of Thailand lowers growth and inflation forecasts
Central bank says Thailand’s rising debt burden and falling consumer confidence are holding back domestic demand, which in turn is slowing the pace of growth and inflation
PMA attributes inflation disparity to Egyptian smuggling
The Palestine Monetary Authority blames the divergence between inflation in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip partly on the cheap goods being smuggled into Gaza from Egypt
Bank of Canada holds rates despite drop in growth and inflation forecasts
Governing council holds key policy rate at 1% despite suggesting inflation will take two years to return to target; says economy is rebalancing but the process will ‘take longer than previously projected’
Bank of Russia slashes forex intervention target
Halved intervention target brings rouble closer to free-float; IMF tells central bank to maintain reform momentum and resist calls to loosen policy
G-20 inflation measure paves way for co-ordinating policy
New statistic aims to fill ‘data gap' identified in wake of the global financial crisis; follows growing calls for globally coordinated monetary policy as countries fret over effects of QE