Financial cycle
The past and future of BIS economics
Claudio Borio looks back over 37 years at the BIS and Hyun Song Shin looks to the future
Inequality exacerbates crises in several ways, Fed research finds
High-income households have a high tolerance for risk, which boosts the non-bank sector
Banks’ AI models are flawed – Basel Committee chair
Pablo Hernández de Cos says risk of AI model misspecification is “incredibly high”
‘Brace, brace’: quants say soft landing is unlikely
Investors should prepare for sticky inflation and volatile asset prices as central banks grapple with turning rates cycle
CGFS draws lessons from 168 years of macro-pru policy
Controlling housing market risks can force authorities into difficult political economy terrain
RBI’s Das warns banks to avoid ‘exuberance’ as credit surges
Indian central bank tightens macro-prudential policy on consumer credit
Strong dollar harms EME bond market liquidity – BIS paper
Dealer intermediation vulnerable to both “original sin” and “original sin redux”
Svensson says house price metrics ‘unreliable and misleading’
Former Riksbank deputy governor says authorities are misjudging risks
Claudio Borio on financial cycles, operating frameworks and non-bank reform
The BIS veteran highlights a ‘unique constellation’ of challenges as central banks travel the ‘last mile’ in bringing down inflation – and says there are many more miles to go on non-bank reform
IMF economists build financial stress index for 110 countries
Text-based method allows economists to assess both duration and intensity of financial crises
Macro-pru tools can cut risk of credit bust – IMF paper
Authors explore whether building buffers can increase resilience over the medium term
Fed rate hikes propel ‘crypto cycle’ – IMF paper
Monetary policy more correlated with institutional investment in tech than finance
IMF economist takes on vexed question of macro-pru calibration
Housing markets are “at a turning point”, says Laura Valderrama, and policy faces tough trade-offs
Central Bank of Chile sets first counter-cyclical buffer
BCC also warns government could face financing problems
Carstens calls for return to ‘region of stability’
Short-term thinking has led to increasingly painful trade-offs for policy, BIS chief says
Basel Committee chair reflects on CCyB effectiveness
Pablo Hernández de Cos suggests review of counter-cyclical buffer as uses of tool diverge
Dallas Fed warns of global housing ‘slide’
US and German markets are out of touch with fundamentals, authors say
BIS welcomes end to investors’ ‘sanguine attitude’
Optimism over future easing clashed with what central bankers were actually saying
Non-banks tend to cut lending during crises – BIS paper
Evidence from syndicated lending suggests growth of non-banks could exacerbate crises
Rethinking the CCyB
As central banks rush to replenish bank capital reserves, the countercyclical buffer may need some fine-tuning
