If 2023 marked a decisive pivot among central banks towards easing monetary policy, 2024 was the year when the reality of high uncertainty and the long “last mile” of disinflation hit home.

In late 2023, the US Federal Reserve cheered some market participants by indicating interest rate cuts could come as soon as the middle of 2024. In the event, the Fed launched its first reduction in September and has proceeded cautiously since. Risky asset markets fell in the wake of the Fed’s December 18