Financial cycle
Kganyago says low point for growth has ‘passed’
The Sarb governor says inflation is “uncomfortably close” to the upper end of the target range; the monetary policy committee unanimously votes to keep rates on hold
Haldane turns to other disciplines to solve big economic questions
BoE chief economist calls for an interdisciplinary approach to tackling the problems economics faces in understanding complex systems; warns of shortcomings in micro-founded models
BoE paper tests agent-based model of macro-prudential policy
Researchers use agent-based model to capture diversity of behaviour between different housing market participants, pointing to risks from larger buy-to-let sector
BIS’s Borio: leaning against the wind must be systematic
Claudio Borio says using monetary policy to stabilise the financial cycle is only likely to be effective if done all the time, not just when trouble is brewing
RBA’s Lowe: credit not enough to measure financial cycle
Deputy governor says the financial cycle’s “considerable intuitive appeal” needs to be backed up with better research on measuring cycles, with balance sheets likely to play a key role
Economists add to theory and empirics of economy’s non-linear dynamics
Paper by Bank of England economists finds “strong evidence” of non-linearity in UK data, while Markus Brunnermeier and Yuliy Sannikov expand theory of financial amplification mechanisms
Climbing ‘Mount Economy’
The BIS’s quest for financial stability-oriented monetary policy throws up questions not only about decision-making but also how one should think about economics, as Claudio Borio explains