Economics
Chicago Fed breaks ties with economist over Black Lives Matter criticism
Controversial comments by senior professor ignite debate over racism in economics, and the Fed’s role in tackling inequality
High US inflation should not be ruled out
A prolonged health crisis raises the risk that supply-side factors, monetary expansion and rising personal savings could stoke hidden inflationary pressures
Raising inflation targets may lower neutral rate – Boston Fed paper
A higher target might therefore be less effective than current research suggests, research says
Doyne Farmer’s next big adventure: capturing the universe
Complexity theorist plans to build an economic super-simulator on a global scale
Macro-pru policies can worsen fiscal crises – Bundesbank paper
Macro-prudential authorities must be aware of their “fiscal footprint”, researcher argues
Bundesbank paper looks at effective lower bound
Modellers can use survey information to reduce impact of ELB on yield decompositions, author says
Banxico forecasts Mexican economy could fall by 8.8% in 2020
Central bank stresses the profound uncertainty to which the economy is subject
Eurozone approaching ECB’s worst-case scenario – Lagarde
Economy likely to shrink by over 10% in 2020, says ECB president
The ECB, the lockdown and the monetary financing lock
The eurozone’s central bank may need to break its prohibition on monetary financing to fight the pandemic
Economists race to merge epidemiology and macro
Promising results are emerging, but workable forecasts may be some way off
German banks’ capital levels affect loan supply – Bundesbank paper
Authors find balance sheet data shows loan supply has positive elasticity to capital levels
Covid-19 may accelerate US firms’ turn away from China – New York Fed
Import data shows firms have used non-Chinese suppliers to replace some lost trade
Scale of Covid-19 impact shows up starkly in US stats
All of the US’s key macroeconomic indicators point to a dramatic slump
US lockdown policy ‘too restrictive’ – Minneapolis Fed paper
Researchers model optimal lockdown policy for lowest aggregate welfare cost to society
Bank of Italy paper examines expectations’ effects on spending
Researchers find inflation levels affect strength of income and intertemporal substitution effects
Covid-19 could cut eurozone GDP by 5%, 8% or 12% in 2020 – ECB
ECB publishes alternative scenarios for the uncertain economic outlook created by the pandemic
Podcast: An interdisciplinary approach to Covid-19 surveying
FedSpeak talks with the Minneapolis Fed’s Abigail Wozniak on her new real-time survey combining social science and epidemiology
Fed’s Jackson Hole conference hit by temporary venue closure
Kansas City Fed is considering implications and will release details when available
Fed banks ramp up Covid-19 surveying
Real-time and weekly surveys reveal deepening economic fallout
El-Erian on Covid-19 policy risks, ‘zombie’ markets and central bank capture
Former Pimco chief says Fed move into high yield is a step too far, new rules needed on leverage and false liquidity, and narrow window emerges for central banks to shed some of their policy load
People: Sarb and BoE renew senior appointments
Senior Sarb and BoE officials receive new terms; MAS picks new assistant managing director; ECB appoints director; William Dudley takes consulting job
Should the Fed be next to implement yield curve control?
The Reserve Bank of Australia is now the second G20 central bank trying to control longer-term interest rates. Could the Fed be next?
IMF programmes must not get too large – Bundesbank paper
Preferred creditor status can lead to large-scale IMF operations crowding out private investors
Pricing the lives saved by coronavirus policies
How does the effort to reduce risks to human life from Covid-19 compare with the economic losses?