Data
Teaching machines to do monetary policy
Machine learning may not yet be at the stage where central bankers are being replaced with robots, but the field is bringing powerful tools to bear on big economic questions
BoE paper studies interest rates across eight centuries
In July 2016, the global risk-free rate hit its lowest level since at least 1273, according to a new extra-long-term dataset
BoE’s new MPC members disagree on future path of hikes
New deputy Dave Ramsden sees current degree of slack to be too great to warrant removal of stimulus, while Tenreyro believes it cannot “persist for too long”
Fintech is the future – Menon
Central bankers weigh in on potential of fintech, agreeing there is a need to separate use cases from the hype
Book notes: Econometrics as a Con Art, by Imad Moosa
Every central bank should have a copy of this interesting study, which holds common econometric practice under the microscope, writes Graham Bannock
Neural network can beat conventional forecasts – Kansas City Fed research
Deep learning model outperforms Survey of Professional Forecasters at all horizons
BIS report sheds light on innovative big data use
Central banks across the globe are turning to big data to solve statistical issues, improve banking supervision, and analyse communications
Chicago Fed’s Evans sees little risk of inflation surge
Study by the Chicago Fed finds little evidence there could be a threshold in unemployment beyond which inflation may surge
Good data management key to extracting value from big data – panellists
Big data proves most useful when backed by a well-designed production chain – but it comes at a cost, central bank data experts say
Non-bank stress tests must be improved – Constâncio
ECB vice-president says stress tests for non-banks are still in a “fledgling state”
IMF paper calls for global co-operation on big data
Discussion note urges statistical authorities to “step up” their involvement in big data projects and develop frameworks for knowledge sharing
Philadelphia Fed launches new research institute
Research body is tasked with better understanding consumer behaviour, particularly in relation to financial markets
Racial wage gaps in US caused by ‘harder-to-measure’ factors
Lack of opportunity plays bigger role than education and profession in racial inequality, paper finds
BoE authors outline machine learning framework
Paper offers guide to machine learning in central bank analysis, and sets out a few examples relevant to policy
BIS payment stats to embrace non-banks and faster payments
New methodology acknowledges role fintech has played in reshaping payments landscape; contactless payment data to be included
New NY Fed dataset shows weakening labour market
New York Fed unveils new, more granular labour market data; results so far indicate wage growth is still elusive
Regulators wary of machine learning in bank models
Banks acknowledge they “cannot hide behind a complex tool” to assess interconnectedness
Wage growth may be stronger than headline figures suggest
San Francisco Fed researchers point to evidence that headline figures may overstate wage weakness; UK figures provide a positive surprise
RBA’s Kent warns mortgages are still risky, despite offsets
RBA assistant governor says use of offset accounts does not remove the need for tighter lending standards; new securitisation database sheds light on housing market
FCA threatens further action against firms “misleading” customers
UK regulator says some banks are still incorrectly using currency transfer services, despite warnings last year; customers are “not fully aware” of being misled until registration has taken place
Verbs matter in forward guidance – Italian paper
Researchers look at verbs used in ECB statements from 2002 to 2015
BSP’s Espenilla: Philippine banking system is ‘very robust’
Central bank to use data-gathering portal to improve services and increase communication with the general public
Bank of Canada hikes for first time in seven years
Bank of Canada becomes the latest advanced economy central bank to hike as the economy proves robust and inflation moves towards target
CCP network study uncovers highly concentrated core of firms
First data-collection exercise of its kind reveals a concentrated core and more dispersed periphery, with the possibility of shocks spreading outward