Research
BoE paper drops rational expectations to solve unemployment puzzles
Replacing rational expectations with adaptive learning helps fit the standard theory of unemployment to the data, economists find
IMF paper offers more granular stress testing framework
IMF applies new stress testing framework to Ecuador’s banking sector; framework offers more efficient surveillance, authors argue
Researcher uses dynamic factor model for ‘nowcasting’
Research makes three additions to widely-used model
BIS paper identifies spillovers from targeted macro-prudential policies
Applying tools narrowly to a sector may nevertheless affect other sections of the financial system, authors find
Spanish paper looks at eurozone inflation expectations
Pan-eurozone factors are more important than country-specific forces, paper says
French paper presents macro-prudential early warning system
Authors advocate aggregating results of larger number of models
Netherlands paper explores people’s trust in pension funds
Most workers opt for flat-rate annuity arrangements but there are some deviations, authors find; expectations on expenses and trust appear to have an effect
Finnish paper rethinks transmission of financial shocks
Researcher’s model uses search and matching approach
ECB publishes latest eurozone trade and investment guide
“Bop and IIP book“ explains compilation of national and eurozone figures
Rate pass-through 'weaker and slower' in Mongolia – paper
Reforms at the Bank of Mongolia have improved the transmission mechanism, authors say, but there is plenty more work to do
Unreported assets worth $6–7 trillion, Italian researchers say
“Areas of opacity” remain, despite recent anti-evasion initiatives, authors say; paper estimates the global levels of personal tax evasion and undeclared assets held overseas
Norges Bank paper presents new evidence on immigration impact
Authors seek to disentangle immigration shock from broader macroeconomic effects, using unique Norwegian data series
RBA paper asks why companies fail
Researchers find specific features of Australian companies make them more likely to fail
Swiss paper shows macro impacts on two safe-haven currencies
Authors surprised to find no significant impact on franc or yen stemming from euro crisis; foreign macroeconomic data has asymmetric impact
BoJ paper designs new measure of trend inflation
Author’s measure reflects the weighted average of an adaptive component and a forward-looking component
Colombian paper models non-linearity in sovereign risk
Model of real exchange rates seeks to capture the non-linear effects of sovereign risk for Latin American countries
Italian banks’ macro cycle “still weak” – Bank of Italy report
Italian central bank publishes latest financial stability report
BoJ economists seek best escape route from liquidity traps
Some policies are more effective than others, but a combination can generate stronger effects, researchers find
Paper examines relationship between monetary policy and bank funding crises
Current regulatory tools are not sufficient to contain bank runs, Canadian working paper suggests, underscoring the importance of policy measures such as reserve requirements
Emerging markets hit harder by US rate hikes than domestic policy – Bank of Korea paper
US rate hikes have a larger impact on growth and financial flows in emerging markets than changes in domestic policy, researchers find
Eurozone banks need to change business models – Constâncio
ECB vice-president points to Swedish banks’ profitability despite low and negative rates
IMF paper seeks to quantify debt bias
Tax systems create “pervasive” debt bias, authors find, arguing for policy action before the problem worsens
Fed research proposes micro-founded approach to term structure modelling
Economists build structural New Keynesian model in contrast to the statistical approaches in much of the available literature, identifying key factors shaping term premiums
Unit root methods can help detect financial bubbles, Finnish paper argues
Researchers apply tool to data from 15 European countries