Research
Bank of Portugal expects stronger growth in 2017
Exports are expected to boost GDP growth to 2.5% in 2017, up from 1.5% in 2016
Disagreement over inflation expectations weakens monetary policy – Bundesbank paper
Research uses data from Fed’s survey of professional forecasters from 1968 to 2017
Payments evolution will result in bank business model changes
Mid-sized banks will have to transform business models in order to remain relevant, says Swift, as fintech and globalisation threaten traditional practices
Developing states can improve inflation targeting – IMF paper
The research finds a bias in favour of results in line with the academic consensus
Neural network can beat conventional forecasts – Kansas City Fed research
Deep learning model outperforms Survey of Professional Forecasters at all horizons
Fed paper constructs ‘loan frontier’ for mortgages
Method mimics literature on estimating production frontiers, allowing authors to study credit provision around the 2008 crisis
Low wage rises may hamper inflation in Sweden – IMF
Higher housing prices and private debt call for stricter amortisation requirements
Fed paper calls for rethink of conditions for setting capital controls
Policymakers should also consider how external shocks affect the borrowing capacity of the country, researchers say
Central banks will be using blockchain by 2019 – research
Study examines pros and cons of central banks adopting blockchain and considers use cases
Danish central bank advises Faroese public spending cuts
Higher salmon prices and low unemployment may overheat the economy, the central bank says
DLT not ready for retail payments – Bundesbank
German central bank says retail payment systems are already sufficient to support fast transfers; DLT could be used to streamline global payment processes
Czech exchange rate floor helped fight deflation – IMF paper
Range of methods imply the exchange rate floor was an effective measure, having been employed after hitting the zero lower bound
ECB paper attempts rigorous testing of economic sentiment
Researchers correlate economic data from 1985 to 2016 with measures of sentiment
BoE economist discusses danger of ‘virtual’ bank run
Faster payments and rise of smartphone technology have made it possible for consumers to drain commercial banks without having to leave their homes, official says
Rate hikes could halt asset bubbles, research finds
Tighter policy can work if savings fall or holdings of bubble asset decline, paper says
‘Significant non-linearities’ in debt-investment relationship, paper says
Researchers look at data from five peripheral eurozone countries
IMF paper calls for global co-operation on big data
Discussion note urges statistical authorities to “step up” their involvement in big data projects and develop frameworks for knowledge sharing
Sovereign debt crises hit non-tradable sectors harder
A 1% increase in bond spreads is associated with an average decline of 3% in growth of zero-traded industries
Lower monthly quotas effective at preventing mortgage defaults
60% of US defaults during financial crisis caused by lack of ability to pay, paper finds
Namibia weighs in on DLT debate
Central bank deems unregulated virtual currencies “unsafe” but sees merit in underlying technology
DLT not ‘necessary’ for central bank digital currency – BoE economist
BoE economist says there are many technological requirements for successful digital currency, but ultimately there are serious economic questions to answer too
Bank of Finland paper deems bitcoin ‘revolutionary’
Bitcoin cannot be regulated, say economists, who give the volatile cryptocurrency a glowing review
Savings and good governance are best policy against natural disasters – IADB
Chile was able to overcome a major earthquake in 2010 without resorting to international funding
Australian first-home buyers have better finances, study finds
RBA research paper finds fewer people are transitioning from renting to owning houses, but those who do tend to be more financially stable