Research
No evidence US prices were ‘more stable or less uncertain' before or after WWII
Experience shows ‘well-managed fiat regime' can achieve same level of moderation in price swings as gold standard, according to Bank of Korea working paper
BoJ paper finds US crisis policy more impactful on markets than European measures
Authors test policy responses to the global financial crisis including monetary, liquidity and financial sector policies, finding US announcements led to higher abnormal returns
BoJ team surveys payment innovation landscape
Central bank lays ground for retail payments innovation in Japan with survey of what has been tried elsewhere; highlights different forces driving change in each country
Swiss paper examines cost of different clearing set-ups
Research finds more sophisticated clearing arrangements for OTC trades can improve welfare – in a Pareto sense – but require more collateral
Models with time-varying parameters improve GDP forecasting, finds Croatian working paper
Research finds that Bayesian models are better at predicting short-term GDP fluctuations in Croatia than naive benchmark models
‘Fiscal devaluation’ not enough to solve competitiveness problems, IMF paper finds
Research finds rearranging taxes to shift the burden overseas has a muted effect on output, but may be useful as part of a broader package of structural reforms
Buba research links output volatility and capital flows
Discussion paper finds countries with more volatile growth rates face greater procyclicality of capital outflows, which may be a result of precautionary saving
Productivity gains in the banking industry affect interest rates, study finds
More productive banks set lower interest rates on loans and higher rates on deposits, increasing their market share, according to a study by the Bank of Spain
RBA paper aims to reduce noise in GDP calculation
Researchers combine three measures of Australian GDP to produce a measure they say is less volatile and easier to calculate
French paper considers impact of TLTROs on funding costs
Banque de France economist examines the funding conditions attached to the ECB’s targeted long-term refinancing operations; sees potential benefits for banks
Singular spectrum analysis helpful when assessing output gaps, study finds
Bank of Portugal paper analyses the ‘added value of singular spectrum analysis-based nowcasts in a real-life, policy-making scenario’
IMF paper suggests solutions to collective action problems
Working paper says difficulties in achieving cooperation when tackling global risks are surmountable; suggests taking ‘incremental steps’ and ‘realigning incentives’
BoE paper tests optimal policy when workers lose skills
Working paper asks how optimal monetary policy is affected by ‘human capital depreciation’; finds strict inflation targeting can be improved upon
IMF paper sees EU inflation expectations holding firm
Working paper says low core inflation in eurozone has had ‘significant’ impact on the rest of the region, though the main driver of disinflation remains food and energy prices
Bank of Finland paper examines impact of Basel II on international bank lending
Research finds sovereign credit rating revisions have become more important since the implementation of Basel II capital rules
Dollar and renminbi can coexist as global currencies, Eichengreen says
Bank of Korea paper finds that ‘networks are open and several international currencies can coexist’, suggesting the dollar and the renminbi will share the role in the future
Trade balance improves after fiscal devaluation, study finds
European economists analyse the effects of a temporary fiscal devaluation in Spain and Portugal, finding it leads to improved trade balance
IMF paper examines causes of financial market spillovers
Research finds financial market spillovers are affected by ‘bilateral portfolio asset holdings, as well as a country’s geographical preferences’
Fed paper models impact of return to normal rates
Discussion paper studies the likely effect of returning interest rates to more normal levels; finds different combinations of tools would have different effects on financial intermediation
French paper examines impact of ECB policy changes on asset prices
Working paper considers how ‘policy shocks’ affected short-term interest rates, as well as the expected future path of short-term interest rates, between 2002 and 2013
Riksbank economist warns on corporate bond market
Economist at the Swedish central bank says it will become ‘increasingly important’ to consider the impact of the corporate bond market on financial stability as it expands
Colombian paper analyses financial networks
Working paper finds central financial institutions ‘tend to overlap across financial networks, thus their systemic importance may be even greater than envisaged’ in alternate models
Belgian review: Common debt will remain ‘taboo’ in Europe
Article published in National Bank of Belgium economic review describes the issuance of common debt as a ‘panacea’ for multiple problems in the eurozone
RBI paper: Rural wages main driver of Indian food inflation
Research published by the Reserve Bank of India says it ‘bears to reason’ there is a need to raise agricultural productivity to mitigate food price pressures