Research
Wages more sticky in the US than in Japan, BoJ paper finds
The empirical fit of the New Keynesian Wage Phillips Curve is generally superior for Japan, auhors note; inflation indexation plays a key role in the US, but is less important in Japan, they add
Finnish paper finds forecast errors correlate with subjective uncertainty, not 'disagreement'
Paper analyses forecasts in the ECB's Survey of Professional Forecasters and the US Survey of Professional Forecasters to find the best predictor of errors
Policy must do more to get women and low-skilled into work, paper finds
Slovak economists analyse the elasticity of labour supply and find that changes in the tax and benefits system could entice women in particular into the workforce
Sepa obstacles have 'not evaporated completely’, warns Finland paper
Bank of Finland researcher finds the advent of the Single Euro Payments Area has not removed all of the barriers to ‘a true domestic products and services market’
Forex loans helped Hungarian firms invest more - until the forint fell in the ‘great recession'
Working paper finds Hungarian firms that borrowed in foreign currencies invested more before the crisis, but experienced a negative balance sheet effect thereafter
Study finds support for Reserve Bank of Fiji's targeting of overnight policy rate
Working paper uses quarterly data for a 10-year period, 'comprehensively estimating all potential money demand equations within the ambit of monetary policy'
Price-setters still expect Sarb to miss inflation target
The South African Reserve Bank has succeeded in persuading analysts it will keep inflation within its target band, but price-setters' expectations remain higher
Home repossession rules explain Europe's divergent debt profiles, paper finds
Discussion paper published by the Deutsche Bundesbank says differences in legal processes explain the ‘striking differences’ in debt profiles of each eurozone country
ECB paper tests resilience of Polish economy to interest rate shocks
Researchers find that output and prices in Poland have become more resilient to both interest rate and exchange rate shocks over the past two decades
One in five Albanians has never heard of current or savings accounts
According to survey data analysed in Bank of Albania working paper, less than half of respondents know the concept of interest rates, but 80% understands the workings of inflation
Reserve requirements may speed up development of capital markets, Peruvian paper finds
Central bank reserve requirements dampen credit cycles in periods of capital inflows and reduce their expansionary effects on aggregate demand, according to central bank working paper
'Coupling' of domestic bonds to foreign markets increases in turbulent times
Chilean corporate bond returns are affected by long-term government bond returns and by foreign macroeconomic shocks in the eurozone and the US
Italian paper finds difficulties in risk weighting sovereign debt
Researchers at the Bank of Italy warn that applying higher risk weights to sovereign debt could be detrimental to banks’ funding conditions
IMF paper finds highly indebted nations can still grow fast
Results of a new study contradict findings of Reinhart and Rogoff, who argued that growth declines at debt of more than 90% of GDP
Countercyclical prudential policies have ‘important implications' for monetary policy
Using a countercyclical macro-prudential instrument in addition to manipulating interest rates improves welfare, IMF paper finds
Nigerian interest rates have 'weak effect' on real economy, CBN working paper finds
Paper examines the process by which Nigerian interest rate policy affects the structure of interest rates, credit, aggregate demand and output production
German banks use interest rate swaps as substitute strategies for managing interest rate risk exposure
They also use on-balance-sheet adjustments of the 'duration gap', Bundesbank discussion paper looking at banks' interest rate risk management finds
RBI paper explores quality of Indian banks’ assets
Researcher acknowledges that asset quality has suffered in the wake of the crisis, but is convinced that banks’ balance sheets are ‘not alarming at the current juncture’
Hungary central bank sets out stress test methodology
Working paper explains how the National Bank of Hungary conducts its stress tests, aimed at ensuring the system can survive an intensive month-long liquidity shock
Borio-led BIS team proposes new approach to measure output gap
Trying to calculate the output gap using the Phillips curve is problematic, say Basel-based economists; new approach finds financial cycle proxies add ‘significant information' to the estimate
Asia uses macro-prudential policies to greater effect, IMF paper finds
Macro-prudential policy has curbed credit growth and bank leverage in several Asian countries over the past decade; loan-to-value ratio caps and housing tax measures among most effective instruments
US foreign investment flows 'significantly' impacted by surprising monetary policy
Both gross and net foreign investment income flows in US and Canada impacted, SNB paper finds; suggests foreign balance sheet channels plays 'increasingly important role' for monetary transmission
Capital vulnerability at US banks began four years prior to crisis, NY Fed paper finds
CLASS model projections show capital vulnerability in the US banking sector started as far back as 2004, before it peaked during the financial crisis at the end of 2008
ECB paper employs survey data to improve yield curve forecasts
Researchers find that survey expectations can be used to help model ‘dynamic behaviour’ of interest rate term structure