Europe
The canary in the goldmine
Gold accumulation may herald broader concerns about dollar holdings, writes Jennifer Johnson-Calari
Proportionality in bank regulation: striking the right balance
The ‘final’ Basel III framework contains elements designed to make the rules fairer while reducing regulatory arbitrage. This means careful analysis is required when making any proportionality adjustments in the EU single rule book, writes Maurizio…
Italy to allow larger cash payments despite central bank objections
Official warns move could encourage illicit activity
Earnings power of economists remains above GDP per capita
Emerging market professionals earn lowest median salary, but incomes still more than double national average
More than half of institutions favour semi-structural models
Just 35% of institutions include financial sector in key modelling
Housing plays growing role in transmitting ECB policy, paper finds
Labour earnings still most important means of transmission, researchers say
Central banks forecast GDP less accurately than inflation
Over half of central banks reviewed models in a bid to project more accurately
The ECB’s collateral conundrum
A lack of high-quality collateral in the eurozone has resulted in money market rates lagging ECB policy rates, hampering monetary policy transmission
Majority of central banks prefer economists with master’s degree
Economists are sponsored more for training than for PhDs
Economics teams constitute just a fraction of central banks’ total workforce
Most institutions have more policy economists than research colleagues
Staff with PhDs make up 21.3% of average economics department
Four-fifths of advanced economy institutions sponsor economists to undertake PhD qualification
Banknotes: October to December 2022
A round-up of news and salient issues that have affected central bankers in the past three months
Eurozone inflation falls for first time in 17 months, estimates say
Eurostat figures show inflation dropping in most countries, including Germany
Central banks judge success of research by number of publications
Inflation and exchange rate most topical issues for central banks
Knot and Schnabel strike hawkish tone on ECB policy
Portuguese governor calls for an end to 75bp hikes; Lagarde says inflation may still rise
Use of centralised data services increases across institutions
Rise of central data teams has gone hand in hand with greater use of alternative data
People: Esma appoints vice-chair
HKMA names deputy chief executive; MAS expands sustainability group
Alternative data used at most central banks
Non-traditional data such as Google searches widely used to support research and forecasting
Research economists devote more working time to own projects
On average, own research works consume 25% of policy economists’ working time
Advanced economy institutions tend to produce more papers
Emerging market researchers averaged five papers a year in peer-reviewed journals
ECB paper presents new corporate default prediction method
Authors say their “distance to insolvency” measure outperforms other forecasting methods
Research agenda determined across multiple levels
Governors and deputy governors give final sign-off on most research publications
Majority of banks blend research and policy functions
Only one in five jurisdictions restructured economics unit in the past 12 months
Growth and inflation are top forecast indicators
More emerging markets forecast growth and inflation compared with the past year