Colombia
Bank of Colombia forecasts stronger growth as oil shock fades
The central bank expects higher GDP growth in 2018, as inflation remains within target and the peso’s exchange rate with the dollar stays stable
Bank of Colombia paper charts fiscal multipliers in developing countries
Stronger fiscal-monetary co-ordination in developing economies during periods of expansion would extract more value from stimulus; fiscal multipliers higher in fixed exchange rate regimes
Divided Central Bank of Colombia votes to cut interest rates
Worries about inflation not returning to target spur board to cut interest rates to 5.75%; external conditions remain a concern despite slightly better inflation data
Colombia’s Echavarría says monetary policy has been a challenge
Monetary policy has had to adapt to external headwinds that have caused macroeconomic imbalances for Colombia, central bank governor says; effects are now showing signs of abating
BIS paper says macro-pru is better when partnered with monetary policy
Macro-pru does not work as well when it acts as a substitute for monetary policy when dampening credit cycles; when deployed as the main instrument, policies prove very successful even in the short term
Staff incentive schemes lead to bad deals for consumers – paper
Colombian paper examines the effect of bank incentive schemes on consumers; transparency index reveals staff often do not disclose information about the price of financial products
Colombian macro-pru measures have been effective, paper shows
Paper analyses the impact of macro-prudential measures on credit supply of banks; both reserve requirement and dynamic provisioning scheme have negative effect on credit growth
Echavarría takes over at Central Bank of Colombia
Former board member central bank takes office as economy is expected to recover from commodity slowdown; biggest challenge will be tackling high inflation
Uribe leaves Central Bank of Colombia after 12 years of governorship
Juan José Echavarría, appointed as Uribe’s successor, will return to the central bank where he served as a member of the bank's board for a period of 10 years
Colombian paper models non-linearity in sovereign risk
Model of real exchange rates seeks to capture the non-linear effects of sovereign risk for Latin American countries
Foreign investment ‘restored’ exchange rates after policy shocks – paper
Data from Colombian central bank shows foreign exchange intervention have “short-lived effects” on prices; over the medium term, foreign capital flows push exchange rate back to original level
‘Neural network’ could help construct early warning systems – Colombian paper
Model can detect identity of bank by analysing features of its balance sheet, which the authors say can be coupled with other financial stress indicators to help classify banks by their fragility
Annual inflation climbs to 8.6% in Q2, Colombian inflation report reveals
Inflation set to decline closer to 3% target in second half of 2016; contingent on adjustment in food prices among other factors
Colombian central bank should examine transmission in greater detail – paper
Colombian banks with higher levels of solvency “less sensitive” to changes in policy rate authors say; central bank should go into “greater detail” when examining policy transmission
Further tightening may be needed in Colombia, IMF says
Staff in Washington, DC, welcome “resolve” of central banking in latest tightening cycle; current account deficit and inflation expectations may call for further action
IMF staff praise Colombian policy mix as central bank hikes by another 25bp
Co-ordinated policy action is supporting “orderly adjustment” in Colombia’s economy, IMF staff say, including good pass-through of rate hikes; central bank continues to tighten
Colombian paper finds ‘negligible’ contagion effects
Contagion in the interbank market poses no real threat to the Colombian financial system, working paper notes; examines link between bank failure and liquidity
Colombian paper explores signals from FX interventions
Interventions in the foreign exchange market act as ‘signals’ to solve co-ordination failure, paper says, suggesting findings can help strategy
Peer-monitoring can help identify ‘distressed’ financial institutions, paper says
Colombian working paper presents early warning system which looks at the liquidity price market participants charge one another
Colombia reinforces inflation target as it tightens policy
Central Bank of Colombia board expects to reach inflation target within two years; raises policy rate by 25bp to 5.5% as expectations increase
Changing commodity prices can ‘cushion’ other shocks, Colombian paper says
Colombian working paper suggests commodity price fluctuations do not always amplify business cycles in emerging markets
Oil prices are key drivers of metal prices, Colombian paper suggests
Research utilising ‘frequency-domain approach’ finds oil prices may be a key drivers of metal prices; consider implications for commodity-rich nations
Colombia concerned by loosening inflation expectations
Unexpected increase in inflation spurs Colombian central bank into action, as it raises key rate by 25 basis points; observers divided over importance of growth risks
Colombia doubles value of largest banknote
Colombian central bank will issue new 100,000 note for the first time alongside five redesigned denominations in 2016