International Monetary Fund (IMF)
IMF’s Lagarde warns on global growth
Managing director says next week’s assessment of world economy will bring bad news with regard to growth; urges increased co-operation to renew economic recovery
IMF paper studies effects of macro-prudential policy
Working paper studies effectiveness of macro-prudential policy in an environment of financial innovation; identifies various factors determining policy outcomes
IMF paper studies reduced financial interconnectedness
Working paper examines impact of deleveraging by financial institutions through declines in collateral use; identifies issue that may cause unintended consequences
IMF paper models sovereign and bank feedback loops
Working paper develops model of interdependence of bank and fiscal solvency; finds relationship can lead to a ‘self-fulfilling crisis’
Lagarde calls for US to deal with ‘fiscal cliff’ and global co-operation
IMF chief puts concerns in the US on par with those in Europe and the slowdown in Brazil, China and India during speech in Tokyo; says G-20 co-operation could boost global GDP by 7%
IMF paper analyses US capital flows and debt
Fund working paper develops model of international capital flows and resulting impact on debt dynamics; finds equity and FDI returns allowed US to maintain high debt levels
Hungarian central bank blasts government tax plan
National Bank of Hungary says government plans for financial transaction tax threatens central bank independence; levy is latest development in conflict between central bank and government
IMF paper assesses drivers of banking equity returns
Working paper studies factors behind movements in bank equity prices; finds that despite general 'dismal' performance, equities of better capitalised and less leveraged banks perform best
IMF paper assesses eurobond proposals
Working paper considers five proposed methods of common debt issuance in Europe; argues there must be a “fundamental discussion” to avoid unintended consequences
IMF issues updates on German and US economies
International Monetary Fund notes Germany’s “remarkable” economic performance; warns US over “tepid” recovery
IMF paper studies debt sustainability in low-income countries
Working paper considers effect of financial crisis on debt sustainability in low-income countries; finds short-term impact but a return to sustainable levels in the longer run
IMF paper studies emerging market debt restructuring
Policy paper reviews causes and consequences of emerging market sovereign debt restructurings; identifies certain elements that can make process less painful
Latest amendments to Hungarian central bank law appease IMF
Hungarian government publishes letter from Christine Lagarde which gives controversial law the go ahead; says IMF is ready to begin talks about financial aid once law is passed
IMF paper examines crisis indicators
Working paper assesses the effectiveness of various indicators in predicting financial crises; finds that leverage is ineffective and instead use of poor quality collateral is “critical link”
IMF paper studies fiscal impact of ageing population
Working paper analyses the effect of ageing populations on 'fiscal space' in G-7 countries; finds a greater impact on countries with larger governments
IMF highlights problems with overreaction to financial crises
Working paper studies data on banking crises; finds that a strong macroeconomic response to a banking crisis may reduce incentive for banks to restructure
Hungary proposes amendments to troublesome central bank law
Hungarian government puts forward amendments to widely criticised central bank law; discussions with concerned international bodies including the ECB and IMF are 'ongoing'
IMF paper assesses impact of financial sector size
Working paper examines the effect on growth of varying sizes of financial sectors; finds that above a certain threshold, financial sectors have a negative impact on growth
Lagarde welcomes additional IMF funding
Christine Lagarde praises countries pledging additional $456 billion to the IMF; says funds will only be used as a “second line of defence”
IMF paper builds dynamic model of systemic risk
Working paper develops dynamic model of risk based on combination of underlying risk factors; finds this provides better warning signals than models with non-dynamic thresholds
IMF paper examines changing bond demand
Working paper considers changes in investor demand for government bonds after the financial crisis; finds lower yields shift demand from foreign to domestic investors
IMF paper models wholesale funding impact on credit supply
Working paper looks at effect of bank wholesale funding during financial crisis; finds use of wholesale funds negatively impacted credit supply during the crisis
IMF paper assesses effect of transparency on credit ratings
Working paper studies relationship between fiscal transparency and sovereign credit ratings; finds that greater clarity improves a country’s rating
IMF paper develops model of systemic risk
Working paper studies asymmetric financial system response to shocks in individual institutions; finds negative bias towards shocks grows significantly with firm size