Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Fed set to adopt ‘elements’ of price-level targeting
Covid-19 could act as a catalyst for a Janet Yellen-supported Fed move to adopt elements of price-level targeting. But questions remain about the timing of such a move
Pandemics can depress natural rates for multiple decades – SF Fed
Real wages tend to rise gradually for 30 years after pandemics, data stretching back to 1340s shows
Covid-19 uncertainty to have long-lasting impact – SF Fed paper
Inflation may turn negative over the near and medium term, researchers estimate
More frequent ELB events cut inflation expectations – San Fran Fed
Household and businesses change spending and pricing behaviours, researchers say
Fed forecasters now less optimistic on growth – San Fran Fed paper
Forecasters have eliminated “overoptimism” bias in recent years, researchers find
US growth trend could fall for the next 10 years, SF Fed paper warns
Productivity slowdown in construction has contributed 30% of slowdown since 1950s, researchers find
Fed ramping up climate change research efforts – Lael Brainard
Climate change could impact neutral rate, governor says; Fed can’t afford to ignore the issue, San Fran Fed’s Mary Daly adds
Researchers use option prices to gauge ZLB risk – San Fran Fed
Chance of rates hitting zero lower bound by the end of next year is 16%, researchers find
San Fran Fed president ‘biased’ towards a hot economy
Gains from a hot economy disproportionately flow to disadvantaged groups, Daly says
Negative rates could lower inflation expectations – San Fran Fed paper
Japanese inflation expectations fell after BoJ introduced negative rates, researchers find
San Fran Fed’s Daly plays down recession fears
But there are still problems in labour market, president says in online Q&A
Sterling’s fall boosted UK inflation - San Fran Fed paper
Prices of tradeable goods rose significantly more than non-tradable goods, researchers find
Fed banks collaborate on economic education
“We have a ‘power-in-numbers’ approach,” says officer at the San Francisco Fed
US labour force participation driven by fewer outflows – San Fran Fed researcher
Hot economy could be making workers less likely to leave labour force, Regis Barnichon says
Risk of hitting ZLB in next three years is low – San Francisco Fed paper
ZLB should not be a concern for monetary policy at this stage, researcher says
San Francisco Fed researcher seeks to improve Phillips curve
Introducing an “interaction variable” can increase predictive performance, researcher says
The IFF China Report 2019
Insight and perspectives from the world's leaders, premier policy-makers and financiers
Consensus over Fed inflation target shifted during Great Recession – San Fran Fed
Up until the 2008 crisis, most FOMC participants preferred a 1.5% target, researchers find
The IFF China Report 2019: Redesigning the international trading and monetary system
Reform of the financial system that brought about the 2007–08 financial crisis has not gone far enough and advanced and emerging market economies must find a more co-operative way forward to ensure globalisation can continue.
‘Does the Fed know more about the economy?’ asks San Francisco Fed
Researcher compares Fed and private sector growth forecasts
Most US community banks could withstand housing slump – researcher
San Fran Fed researcher says less than 1% of banks would be “severely undercapitalised”
Fed has limited tools to combat climate change impact – San Fran Fed paper
But central banks can do more to research appropriate policy responses to climate change
US bank interconnectedness is falling – San Fran Fed paper
New method focuses on idiosyncratic factors to identify possible links, researchers say
Fed to finalise balance sheet plans in upcoming meetings – Mester
Discussions over final size and future use of the balance sheet underway at the central bank