ECB paper finds fiscal targets are useful for forecasting
Ex ante fiscal targets can convey useful information to forecasters
A working paper published this month by the European Central Bank (ECB) argues that ex ante targets for government spending convey useful information about ex post outcomes. This result is despite long-standing concerns about politically-motivated biases in such targets.
In Fiscal targets – a guide to forecasters? Joan Paredes, Javier J Pérez and Gabriel Pérez-Quirós examine fiscal forecasting for the economies of Germany, France, Italy and Spain. They adopt the point of view of an informed
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