Economics
Google data can underpin eurozone GDP nowcasts – Banque de France paper
Researchers say method is particularly useful when official data is unavailable
Chinese inflation rebounds amid easing of monetary policy
CPI hits 2.3% in March, the highest level in five months, while PPI reverses its declining trend since late 2017
‘Does the Fed know more about the economy?’ asks San Francisco Fed
Researcher compares Fed and private sector growth forecasts
Informal sector changes inflation dynamics – BIS paper
Informality dampens impact of some shocks but also impairs policy transmission, authors find
IMF cuts growth forecasts for most economies
Japan and China are the only two to receive a more optimistic outlook from the IMF; global economy at a “delicate moment”, says Gita Gopinath
BoJ downgrades economic outlook as regional growth disappoints
Haruhiko Kuroda remains positive and says robust domestic demand could offset some of the weaknesses in exports
US wage growth ‘possibly double’ what is reported – Dallas Fed
Researchers use dataset that includes those who move house to calculate wage growth
The IFF China Report 2019: New globalisation – The path to the future
Multilateral rules and multilateral bodies will need to be upgraded in the coming years to better represent the shift in economic gravity towards Asia, which has emerged as the largest contributor to global growth during the past decade.
Big data should help solve problems ‘on the ground’ – Ireland’s Kearns
Central banks need to do more than simply invest in technology and analytics, says Kearns
Eurozone macro-prudential policies have large cross-border effects – ECB paper
Impact especially strong when different countries have asymmetric financial cycles, researchers say
Lower unionisation ‘unlikely to account for’ low wage growth
In Australia, share of employees covered by wage agreements negotiated remains stable, RBA researchers find
Fed launches database on household wealth distribution
Database designed to help policy-makers understand the impact of their decisions on patterns of inequality
Global slowdown continues to warrant stimulus – Poloz
Poloz confident of Canada’s ability to adjust and says slowdown is temporary
Ageing workforce depresses wage inflation – BIS paper
Demographic change could be behind weakness of inflation despite record-low unemployment
Borio questions Larry Summers on ‘secular stagnation’
Two teams of economists present fresh evidence for divergent views of low real rates
Major Swedish firms surprised by continuing economic expansion
Riksbank survey finds major companies do not see signs of imminent recession
RBNZ paper seeks high-speed labour market indicator
“Midas” approach can help build picture of current state of labour markets, say economists
IMF puts new macro-prudential database to work
Fund uses new data to test effectiveness of LTV ratios
EU must prevent large firms dominating markets, Praet says
ECB chief economist warns market concentration may have serious macroeconomic effects
Podcast: Greg Kaplan on heterogeneous-agent models
Monetary and fiscal policy are much more closely connected than many central banks would like
Major economies outside eurozone to ‘modestly’ decelerate – ECB
Slow growth rates since the “great recession” may point to fall in potential growth, say researchers
Denmark set to continue growing despite risks – central bank
The Scandinavian economy is prepared to withstand external shocks, says analysis
UK statistics body to launch high-speed indicators
Big data approach should allow faster estimates of economic activity, ONS says
Book notes: Finance and philosophy, by Alex J Pollock
A readable and useful book that provides much food for thought, and should be read widely by economists and policy-makers