Major economies outside the eurozone are most likely to undergo a “modest” deceleration, rather than a drastic halt, according to research published in the European Central Bank’s latest economic bulletin.

The research draws a guardedly optimistic conclusion, arguing that “signals of a severe slowdown or recession appear contained” in major economies outside the eurozone.

But it warns that “downside risks abound, and have increased lately”. The researchers point to “an exacerbation of trade