Macroeconomics
Inflation memories pass from parents to children – research
Fear of hyperinflation influences behaviour across generational divides
Researchers warn US vacancies are ‘untethered’ from other data
Minneapolis Fed economists say US could face “more substantial job losses”
The risks facing the Chinese economy
China isn’t at risk of a financial meltdown, but it does face a slow puncture, writes Michael Taylor
Memory shapes inflation expectations, study finds
People who remember high inflation also trust the central bank less, authors say
Monetary policy helped curb inflation expectations – research
Higher rates could achieve a “soft landing” if the expectations channel is strong enough, authors say
Obstfeld argues central banks’ rate models are ‘conceptually flawed’
Former IMF chief economist says rates could soon return to the effective lower bound
BIS weighs possible shift in global liquidity conditions
Nervy markets struggle to digest rates outlook, as BIS research finds deeper shift may be underway
PCE inflation falls in the US
Atlanta Fed president says data suggests inflation will only continue to fall
Strong dollar harms EME bond market liquidity – BIS paper
Dealer intermediation vulnerable to both “original sin” and “original sin redux”
UK inflation falls more than BoE had expected
Housing prices fall year on year for first time since 2012, while energy prices also decline
UK financial institutions are ‘global public good’, says Bailey
BoE governor warns against fragmentation, criticises Brexit and discounts rate cuts
China slides back into deflation
Falling pork prices are a major drag on consumer prices
Covid-era fiscal policy helped fuel inflation, researchers say
Robert Barro and Francesco Bianchi say their evidence supports fiscal theory of the price level
Sweden faces lower employment and labour force growth
Integration of foreign-born citizens is key to keep expanding labour force, says Riksbank research
Asian bond spreads with US not widening, BIS research finds
Central banks’ actions have decoupled EME bonds from stronger dollar, researchers say
China boosts support for economy with new debt issuance
The central government will issue one trillion yuan in bonds in the fourth quarter
Firms’ pricing power was driver of generalised inflation, paper finds
Supply shocks gave firms cover to raise prices without losing sales, authors find
Default fears loom over Country Garden
The Chinese developer reportedly missed a final deadline to repay $15.4 million in interest
Riksbank’s Flodén says inflationary pressures are too high
Weak krona may explain higher price increases, says deputy governor
UK researchers propose 3% inflation target and negative rates
Inflation stalls at 6.7% in September, the same figure as in August
Central banks must brace for another energy shock
Conflict between Israel and Hamas adds to the risk of inflation and recession, says Paul Mortimer-Lee
Paper explores shifting drivers of Beveridge curve
Authors say job openings and unemployment data are not enough to judge prospects of a soft landing
Paper offers new method for measuring natural rate
Authors say use of natural experiment leads to much smaller errors
EME officials predict volatility from ‘higher for longer’ rates
Fed’s policy set to worsen environment, say officials from Peru, Colombia and South Africa