Macroeconomics
Egypt announces ‘record’ inflation
Inflation continues rising despite monetary tightening and could trigger IMF consultation
World Bank releases country income classifications
Seven countries promoted, while Jordan falls a category due to population growth
Fed economists estimate natural rate still at rock bottom
Analysis implies policy rate is firmly in restrictive territory and may not remain high
Book notes: Labor in the age of finance, by Sanford M Jacoby
A fascinating attempt to document the US labour movement’s efforts to use pension fund money to bolster its voice
Central banks face tough fight for ‘last mile’ of disinflation – BIS
Credit losses could rival global financial crisis in higher-for-longer scenario, institution warns
Zambia agrees foreign debt deal
Government agrees to repay faster if IMF assesses its ability to do so has risen
AI may demand ‘entirely new’ regulatory approach – IMF’s Gopinath
Deputy managing director says artificial intelligence risks “broad negative effect” on employment
Bernanke and Blanchard reassess causes of inflation surge
Economists who predicted surge misunderstood underlying causes, study finds
‘Robust’ wage growth consistent with disinflation – BIS paper
But firms need to avoid increasing their profit margins, authors find
Bank of Italy expresses concerns over flat tax
Official says policy is typical of emerging markets and could weaken income redistribution
Steeper Phillips curve cannot fully explain inflation surge – IMF paper
Structural factors have led to some steepening but it is not the full story, authors say
ECB paper suggests faster methods for estimating eurozone employment
Nowcasting tools outperform models currently used by ECB, researchers say
Advanced economies face slowdown and stubborn inflation
Jagjit Chadha analyses the shifting outlook for the world economy, with more hard work ahead for central banks
NBER paper proposes ‘resurrecting’ non-linear Phillips curve
Original version of the curve is “strongly non-linear” and helps explain current inflation, authors say
What economists learned from Covid-19
A rush of work on ‘epi-macro’ yielded breakthroughs and then faded. Will there be lasting benefits?
BoE’s Broadbent denies money supply is driving inflation
Deputy governor says M4 growth neither driven by QE or particularly linked to inflation
Structural reforms could ‘unleash’ Indian growth – IMF paper
Study highlights shift in sources of productivity growth in India
Kganyago calls for lower inflation target and tighter policy
Sarb governor urges reform of South Africa’s troubled transport and electricity sectors
Global economy will be ‘anaemic’ – IMF
Inflation falling, but central banks will only reach targets over 2024 and 2025
Youth disconnect could create ‘less-skilled workforce’ – Dallas Fed
Declining labour force participation is detaching younger people from work, authors find
Kansas City Fed warns slow wage growth could spur debt problems
Subprime auto debt back above pre-pandemic levels and consumer debt at highest level ever
IMF research emphasises link between inflation and fiscal policy
Authors call for spending cuts and large, targeted wealth transfers to the poor
Bank of Israel warns political turmoil could hit GDP
Central bank slows cycle with 25bp hike, raising key rate to 4.5%
Long-term unemployment can affect inflation – BoE paper
Non-linear Phillips curve helps explain finding that breaks with previous literature