Macroeconomics
‘Selective memory’ helps explain expectation de-anchoring – paper
Authors build model around three “regularities of human recall”
Monetary policy could face ‘tougher tests’ ahead, BIS warns
Soft landing “in sight”, but pricing imbalances, fragile fiscal policy and financial vulnerabilities loom
Transitioning to renewables could reduce shock impact – research
Authors say Brazilian economy may serve as a model in the clean energy transition
Monetary policy-makers should track bubbles – Dallas Fed paper
Economists warn of possible ‘explosive bubbles’ and evaporating wealth
Simpler models can capture dynamics of Hank framework – NBER paper
Heterogeneity can be “irrelevant” to determining output in some situations, authors find
Book notes: The wealth of a nation, by Geoffrey Hodgson
This book provides a deep dive into the economic and institutional transformations that supported the rise of English capitalism
Central bankers warn of US election risks
Danger of tariffs and supply chain disruptions, Central Banking Summer Meetings hear
Global natural rates could be rising, SNB governor says
Jordan says Swiss central bank’s approach allows it to deal with uncertainty over r*
Acemoglu questions productivity benefits of AI
MIT economist finds weak productivity gains from AI and says benefits may be undermined by costs
Twenty years on, Visegrád states are converging to rest of the EU
Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia have undergone economic transformation, CNB finds
Can US policy choices explain economic divergence?
NIESR’s Ahmet Kaya finds US fiscal stimulus may have masked standard economic relationships, but economic gravity may soon reassert itself
Hungarian minister calls central bank ‘unco-operative’
MNB’s critique of government strategy draws official’s rebuke
Profit inflation and monetary policy: weighing the evidence
Biagio Bossone says profit inflation needs monetary ‘fuel’ to rise – but fiscal policy is the best fix, should governments have the ‘guts’
US news has a large impact on global bond yields – research
Bank of Canada research finds US news affects expectations in other countries
Generative AI’s impact on inflation unclear – BIS study
Inflation could worsen if people anticipate jump in productivity, authors say
Low growth threatens to reverse living standards – IMF
AI will drive growth but also increase inequalities, fund says
Long-term inflationary pressure set to rise, research finds
Changed environment makes central banks’ task harder, Kenneth Rogoff and other researchers say
Dallas Fed analysis explains puzzle of strong US economy
Authors say US has enjoyed favourable supply-side conditions that others missed out on
IMF chief urges China to adopt pro-market reforms
Comprehensive reforms could add $3.5 trillion to economy over next 15 years, Georgieva says
New study finds uneven impact of changing energy costs
Energy prices more likely to affect product prices than wage increases
BIS research points to ‘slower disinflation ahead’
Breakdown of post-Covid surge finds services prices playing bigger role
Natural rate is rising in US and eurozone, BIS study finds
Research adds to debate on metric but warns it is “blurry guidepost” for monetary policy
‘Cost of money’ explains depressed US consumers – NBER research
Larry Summers and co-authors highlight “disconnect in inflation measurement”
RBI challenges IMF’s call for larger fiscal consolidation
Study argues bigger budget cuts not necessary if government focuses on development spending