French paper stands up for early-warning signals
A working paper published by Banque de France on January 28 defends the ability of a simple early-warning signal model to predict and explain economic vulnerabilities.
The author, Matthieu Bussière, notes a lot of scepticism towards the ability of early-warning signals to help predict financial crises, but rejects the notion that such signals have no explanatory power, and are self-fulfilling.
The author argues that early-warning signal models are currently neglected and rarely maintained. Their
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