Trade
Senior central bank officials defend globalisation
Dombret and Mminele argue against the idea that globalisation is causing high unemployment and low growth, while stressing the negative impacts of protectionist trade policies
Schembri: mix of factors holding back Canadian investment
The outlook is improving, the deputy governor says; openness to trade and immigration are likely to boost growth
Sarb’s Mminele concerned about ‘geopolitical risks’
Anti-globalisation and protectionist rhetoric are at the top of the deputy’s list when it comes to risks to the South African economy this year; Brexit negotiations also a concern
ECB’s Cœuré argues against protectionism
ECB board member says protectionist policies reduce overall growth potential; calls for a more “efficient, enduring and equitable” approach to globalisation
IMF authors build network model of trade fragility
Network theory helps authors unpick the effects of a supply shock on the “highly interconnected” global trade system
Asia needs new growth model – BoJ’s Kuroda
Region can no longer serve as “the workshop of the world” as the trade in goods slows down, says the Bank of Japan governor
Sarb deputy says G20 is ‘running the risk’ of being seen as inactive
Mminele says international leaders should intensify their “communication”, to foster inclusive globalisation; protectionist policies will not work in the current landscape, he says
Protectionism will undermine global trade recovery – Greek deputy
Mourmouras warns Donald Trump against enforcing protectionist policies, highlighting the negative effects it could have on global trade
Xi says China is open for business as US turns away
China to become a bigger player in global markets as US seems to be turning inwards, says President Xi; firms looking to invest overseas
Global value chains increasingly driving global inflation – BIS paper
Growth of global value chains limits the importance of domestic factors in creating inflation, complicating the jobs of central banks
Terms-of-trade shocks affect house price fluctuations – paper
Bank of Canada research shows terms of trade shocks explain large percentage of variance in house price growth; most of the variation associated with changes in real import prices, authors say
Yellen underlines the importance of education for the economy
Globalisation and technology are driving the demand for educated workers, Fed chair says, emphasising the important role education has to play in the evolving US economy
IMF to tackle effects of globalisation in 2017
Fund says it will focus on bringing the benefits of globalisation and technology to a wider section of society, amid a populist backlash against openness
ECB publishes latest eurozone trade and investment guide
“Bop and IIP book“ explains compilation of national and eurozone figures
Fed’s Powell sees China as major factor in global trade slowdown
Fed governor seeks to explain global trade slowdown, citing many factors but saying China “looms large” in the debate
IMF’s Rennhack outlines challenges facing LatAm economies
Robert Rennhack sees terms of trade driving real exchange rates; tells audience in Mexico region as a whole is in recession
Poloz upbeat on US and Canadian productivity prospects
Bank of Canada governor explores evolution of international trade; it may have fallen, but there are still opportunities for productivity growth, Poloz says
Brazil and Paraguay near local currency payment system
Cross-border system could account for 5% of all trade between the countries; importers and exporters can use own currencies
FCA paper investigates whether HFTs predict orders
Working paper finds patterns consistent with HFTs anticipating order flows over longer time periods, but authors unable to ascertain cause
BIS paper says trade finance impacts global spillovers
Working paper emphasises importance of including trade finance when modelling global shocks, finding variations in price stickiness are important
Trade structure: from raw materials to machinery and services
China’s export structure has changed radically over the past three decades, moving from being dominated by raw materials in the 1980s to machinery and services in the 2000s.
St. Louis Fed paper considers impact of trade shocks on labour market
Working paper examines effects of trade shocks on labour markets, finding the increase in import competition from China after 2000 actually boosted aggregate US welfare
CNB paper questions strength of ‘border effect’
Studies using outdated methodologies overestimate the impact of national borders on trade, authors say; effect is stronger in emerging markets
IMF paper examines causes of financial market spillovers
Research finds financial market spillovers are affected by ‘bilateral portfolio asset holdings, as well as a country’s geographical preferences’