Forecasting
ECB cuts policy rate by 25 basis points
Strong eurozone wage growth rules out commitment to further cuts, says governing council
Lkhagvasuren Byadran on geopolitics, gold and 100 years of central banking on the steppe
Bank of Mongolia governor Lkhagvasuren Byadran speaks about monetary and financial reform, embracing AI and fintech, and Mongolia’s new SWF
Are low-level inflation targets still fit for purpose?
Geostrategic shifts make the case for a narrow price target less compelling
Risks facing central banks: action and inaction
Unlike Fed policy in the 1990s, central bank actions this century do not appear overly accommodative, given poor policy decisions elsewhere, writes Andrew Smithers
What is forecasting for? Bernanke and the future of BoE projections
The Bernanke review pushes central banks to rethink the role of forecasts in policy-making, but it also shies away from solving a key paradox in the process
Cecilia Skingsley on monetary policy tech and a unified ledger
Head of the BIS Innovation Hub speaks about tokenisation, CBDCs and the ‘black box problem’ in AI
Bernanke urges regular policy reviews at BoE
Former Fed chair recommends reviews of “policy implementation and framework”
Oil shocks can be identified in real time, paper says
Bank of Italy researchers’ model identifies demand and supply shocks from daily data
Fed holds rates as it struggles with inflation’s last mile
Experts disagree over risks of rising inflation and difficulty of Fed’s position
Schnabel: ECB could replace central forecast scenario
ECB should consider using alternative scenarios and dot plots to convey uncertainty, official says
Bank of Korea considering forward guidance reform
Governor Rhee Chang-yong sees merit in revealing more information to public
Taking stock of Bernanke: the original sin of forecasting
Jagjit Chadha says the Bernanke review of forecasting should be the start of a more profound discussion at the Bank of England
Bernanke calls for total redesign of BoE forecasting
Report calls for major changes to infrastructure, core models, staffing, communications and more
Bank of England: time for fourth-generation forecasting tools?
Economists suggest ways to improve BoE’s framework ahead of Bernanke’s report
Fixing forecasting at the Bank of England
Ahead of the launch of the Bernanke review, NIESR’s Stephen Millard makes the case for three key changes to the BoE’s forecasting
ECB to explore nature-related risk in environmental plan
Climate change and biodegradation are “two sides of the same coin”
Pill says BoE has focused too hard on inflation forecast
Chief economist argues “richer and more robust analysis” is needed
Bailey hints at possible outcome of Bernanke review
Bank of England may present range of scenarios around central forecast
Bundesbank research looks at German banks’ forecasts
Economists measure lenders’ effectiveness at planning for rates cuts
Richard Byles on Jamaica’s inflation-targeting baptism of fire
The Bank of Jamaica governor speaks with Christopher Jeffery about forex interventions, setting up digital disruptor banks and the next steps for Jam-dex
Memory shapes inflation expectations, study finds
People who remember high inflation also trust the central bank less, authors say
Caucasus central banks cut rates as inflation falls
Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia continue gradual easing, with Armenian inflation at -0.5%
Economics Benchmarks 2023 – model banks analysis
Data reveals differences in research, forecasting and data use across central banks
Chile cuts rates for fourth consecutive meeting
Board forecasts inflation will return to 3% target in 2024