Taking stock of Bernanke: the original sin of forecasting
Jagjit Chadha says the Bernanke review should be the start of more profound discussion at the BoE
While the Bernanke review of forecasting at the Bank of England provides a welcome moment for us to assess the mistakes that have resulted from the current practices of the monetary policy committee (MPC), it should not be the final word. The original sin of economic forecasters is that they will always be wrong. Any honest producer of forecasts will make this point clear, as I have at every forecast release at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research since my appointment in May
Only users who have a paid subscription or are part of a corporate subscription are able to print or copy content.
To access these options, along with all other subscription benefits, please contact info@centralbanking.com or view our subscription options here: http://subscriptions.centralbanking.com/subscribe
You are currently unable to print this content. Please contact info@centralbanking.com to find out more.
You are currently unable to copy this content. Please contact info@centralbanking.com to find out more.
Copyright Infopro Digital Limited. All rights reserved.
As outlined in our terms and conditions, https://www.infopro-digital.com/terms-and-conditions/subscriptions/ (point 2.4), printing is limited to a single copy.
If you would like to purchase additional rights please email info@centralbanking.com
Copyright Infopro Digital Limited. All rights reserved.
You may share this content using our article tools. As outlined in our terms and conditions, https://www.infopro-digital.com/terms-and-conditions/subscriptions/ (clause 2.4), an Authorised User may only make one copy of the materials for their own personal use. You must also comply with the restrictions in clause 2.5.
If you would like to purchase additional rights please email info@centralbanking.com
More on Economic modelling
SNB researchers develop ‘more precise’ LLM-based risk predictor
New model allows for “more nuanced understanding” of types of uncertainty, researchers say
The Netherlands Bank overhauls nowcasting model
Economic dynamics have become more complicated since the pandemic, economists say
Machine learning can improve inflation forecasts – IMF paper
Model for Japan is “easily interpretable” and overcomes some drawbacks of standard models
NBER paper seeks ‘canonical Hank model’
Early attempts at heterogeneous agent modelling led to implausible results, authors say
North Macedonia develops new DSGE model
Analytical tool to supplement existing models built in conjunction with CNB and IMF
‘Beveridge threshold’ can explain US soft landing – study
Gauti Eggertson tells Jackson Hole attendees why many economists were too gloomy about growth
‘State-dependent’ model sheds light on inflation surge
Bank of Spain’s Galo Nuño says changing key pricing assumption helps explain “immaculate disinflation”
Central Bank of Kenya upgrades nowcasting platform
Package of forecasting reforms is part of ongoing policy “modernisation”