The Americas
One-fifth of central banks lack defined risk tolerance and strategy
But majority of respondents apply risk management principles to policies and processes
Centralised risk teams tend to have more sub-units
Size of central banks with climate change risk unit steadies at 12%
Financial and op risk divisions maintain largest staff
Upper-middle income nations tend to have different staffing priorities
Share of economics departments with data unit rises
Web scraping and administrative data are top alternative sources for economists
Economists commonly use AI for data analysis
Lower-middle income countries, Africa and Asia-Pacific report lower use of AI
Peer-reviewed journals still top gauge for research impact
Smaller teams more likely to consider conference presentations as assessment tool
Inflation and GDP growth forecast errors decrease further
Forecast errors used widely for key model adjustments
Central banks published fewer working papers and articles in 2023
Middle income and low income central banks published less
Time series and semi-structural models widely applied
High income countries more likely to use AI than peers from other income levels
Economic growth and inflation remain most forecast indicators
But year-on-year data show rising priority for exchange rates
Policy analysis takes most of PhD economists’ time
Other tasks consume just a quarter of their official hours
Working group minutes: reserve managers chafe at constraints
Officials at several central banks say limited investment universe restricts room for manoeuvre
Economists’ median salary falls below $30,000 a year
Annual budget of economics departments averages under $1 million
Policy economists outnumber research colleagues
Economics FTE staff make up 4% of central banks’ overall employees, on average
Economics teams tend to be tailored by institution
But hub and spoke model is prevalent among high income respondents
Tombini warns of false sense of stability in markets
BIS official says participants need to price in significant uncertainty over economic policy
‘I wish we were long bitcoin’ – central bankers on Trump 2.0
Reserve managers at Central Banking Autumn Meetings warn of higher signal-to-noise ratio
Smaller banknote denominations have shorter lifespan
High income central banks produce longer-lasting cash
Middle income central banks see largest volume of counterfeit notes
Foil remains least used security feature for banknote production
Majority of central banks have emergency cash inventory
But few respondents say they have alternative strategies in place
Half of central banks recycle banknotes as sustainability measure
Most currency operations lack climate strategy, but a few plan to launch one