Research
Systemic risk more than size and default probability
Bank of Canada looks at measuring aggregate risk in the financial system
Fed could have done more: CEPR paper
A paper reviewing the Fed’s policy actions in the crisis finds that it could have pushed further, according to economic theory
A new default and credit risk model for Korea
Bank of Korea research develops a model to estimate the probability of default using new indicators such as debt-to-equity ratios that better explain behaviour
Joint fiscal stimulus does everyone good
Bank of Canada looks at the potential effect of the joint fiscal policy initiatives of the G20 in 2009 and 2010
Labour shifts and productivity analysed
Bank of Canada paper finds that while overall labour reallocation has picked up, movement between jobs in the same industry, which causes increases in productivity, has declined
IMF warns against Japanese complacency
International Monetary Fund report says Japan will face a harder task in convincing markets it can manage high debt levels in future
Big fiscal spending hurts post-crisis recovery: IMF
International Monetary Fund looks at whether there is a trade-off between committing large fiscal resources and a quick recovery
SNB policy impacts franc’s rate by less than 20%
Swiss National Bank looks at the determinants of the franc’s exchange rate against the euro
Great Depression spread by Germany, not US
A new paper argues that the 1931 crisis was propagated by the collapse of Germany's banking system
The behavior of money
A technical paper from the Central Bank of Ireland looks at how the demand for money has changed as the store of value function has gained in importance over the past 40 years.
Back in the USSR?
Bank of Finland research finds that after 20 years of experimenting with private financial intermediation, Russia appears to be backtracking towards a state-run credit system.
New DSGE model for Estonia
Bank of Estonia makes public its new dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for the domestic economy
Who should decide on LoLR support?
Central Bank of Uruguay’s Jorge Ponce looks at who should decide on emergency liquidity assistance
Rethinking risk aversion in asset-price models
San Francisco Fed shows measuring household risk aversion correctly is crucial for understanding asset prices
Accurate inflation forecast crucial for exit plan
St Louis Fed looks at challenges in designing effective exit policy
Italy's economy in the crisis
Bank of Italy looks at the effects of the crisis on the Italian productive system
How oil prices affect the economy
Bank of Canada paper finds that energy prices affect economy mainly through supply side
PNG’s kina is a commodity currency
Bank of Papua New Guinea looks at determinants of kina’s exchange rate
How cash flow shocks spread: ECB paper
ECB paper finds local shocks can spread quickly through banks and non-financial firms, even without defaults
Corporate debt supports macro liquidity
Bank of Canada looks at corporations’ debt-issuance strategies
Inflation costs: Philadephia Fed working paper
Philadelphia Fed paper examines cost of inflation in a DSGE model
Asset fire sales spread shock to emerging markets
A paper from the Centre for Economic Policy Research shows that financial shocks spread from developed to emerging economies through portfolio reallocations in the crisis
Optimal monetary policy with some pricing power
Boston Fed paper looks at optimal policy in an environment where firms can set some prices
Leverage and productivity in emerging European economies
A Centre for Economic Policy Research paper published in December argues that while moderate leverage increases growth, excess leverage can dampen it