Research
Exercise caution with Okun’s law: Bank of Canada paper
Research from the Canadian central bank shows recent evidence does not conform to the original specifications of relationship between output and unemployment
BoJ study: low rates not enough
Bank of Japan study shows that low interest rate commitment was insufficient in stimulating growth
Fed: safety net is too big
Richmond Federal Reserve research flags dramatic expansion of safety net
IMF explains peso appreciation in the 90’s
IMF paper shows that gains in total factor productivity and more competitive pricing for tradable goods explains the historical appreciation of the peso
The Bank’s balance sheet during the crisis
Bank of England’s markets chief sets out how size and composition of balance sheet has changed
Boston Fed: the housing portfolio effect
A study by the Boston Federal Reserve explains why Americans buy unaffordable homes when the housing market is appreciating
Investment growth declines in Europe
Central Bank of Ireland research shows that while declines in investment growth is larger in US compared with the eurozone this year, it continues to lag behind the US overall
Bank of Canada on risky measures
Bank of Canada study shows that increased ownership among the largest shareholders invites less risky behaviour in decision making
Household consumption falls in China: RBA
Despite household consumption expenditure in China continuing to rise, the share of household consumption in total expenditure has declined
UK public’s price expectations moderately rise
GfK NOP survey on inflation attitudes from the Bank of England shows expectations remain stable
The US banking practices falling behind
Boston Fed study urges US to invest more in payments technology to cope with the demands of the digital age
Canada develops own version of the GPM
Model to predict global growth developed in conjunction with IMF
IMF highlights risks of FX swaps
IMF paper finds that the use of foreign exchange (FX) swaps for funding and hedging purposes is not as infallible as previously thought, especially in periods of market stress
Credit channel working in Korea
Bank of Korea paper uses data from Korean firms to build on academic research on credit channels
More men than women lost jobs in crisis: NY Fed paper
New York Fed paper finds that the unemployment gender gap widened in the recession, partly due to higher numbers of men re-entering labour force rather than waiting out the slump
An improved model for predicting direct investment equity income
Paper from the Danish central bank finds that combining past profitability and change in expected consumption growth provides a better forecast
Risks influencing loan rates: Bank of England paper
Bank’s external monetary policy unit research shows loan size is not the only variable affecting rates, says higher income individuals are treated better by lenders
BIS on the origins of macroprudential
Bank for International Settlements research traces the etymology of macroprudential, noting that it has become a buzzword in the aftermath of the crisis
Discretionary policy with Calvo pricing: Kansas Fed paper
Kansas Fed research shows that sticky price models, such as the Taylor and Calvo variants, are not identical, and can have important policy implications
The simulation of inflation forecasting
IMF research asks how useful is a simple Phillips Curve in simulating inflation forecasting in real time in Germany, the UK, and the US?
Real-time output gap estimates unreliable: ECB paper
European Central Bank paper finds that real-time estimations of the difference between actual and potential GDP cannot be trusted in several respects
Real-time activity index shows depth of recession
Philadelphia Fed paper constructs index of real-time macroeconomic information, showing that the recent recession was defined by its severity relative to its length
Emerging markets need a voice: Krueger
Ex-IMF first deputy managing director Anne Krueger writes that countries such as India and China must have a presence of the international stage reflecting their weight in the global economy
Income convergence and inflation in central and eastern Europe
Bank of Estonia paper finds that income levels and inflation are correlated in the long term, but not in the short-term, with the process of convergence appearing to be slow