Research
IMF paper examines changing bond demand
Working paper considers changes in investor demand for government bonds after the financial crisis; finds lower yields shift demand from foreign to domestic investors
Bank of Canada paper compares price-level and inflation targets
Working paper considers effect of global commodity price shocks on choice of monetary policy regime; finds important impact of energy supply and demand
IMF paper models wholesale funding impact on credit supply
Working paper looks at effect of bank wholesale funding during financial crisis; finds use of wholesale funds negatively impacted credit supply during the crisis
BIS paper examines impact of financial cycle
Working paper studies the financial cycle and its relationship to the business cycle; emphasises importance of considering the medium term in designing policies
IMF paper assesses effect of transparency on credit ratings
Working paper studies relationship between fiscal transparency and sovereign credit ratings; finds that greater clarity improves a country’s rating
IMF paper develops model of systemic risk
Working paper studies asymmetric financial system response to shocks in individual institutions; finds negative bias towards shocks grows significantly with firm size
Central Bank of Chile paper examines transmission of shocks
Working paper studies reaction of investors and fund managers to shocks; finds behaviour amplifies crises and transmits shocks
IMF paper compares Islamic and conventional finance
Working paper examines returns on Islamic and conventional finance; finds differences in returns are not statistically significant
Central Bank of Colombia paper models transparency incentives
Working paper evaluates central bank incentives to misrepresent private information; finds central banks cannot credibly commit to truth-telling
IMF paper develops model of world economy
Paper builds structural macroeconomic model of world economy; says such models are “prerequisite” to IMF surveillance
BIS researcher examines countercyclical policy in emerging markets
BIS Quarterly Review special feature assesses the use of countercyclical policies in emerging markets; finds broad implementation of stabilising monetary and fiscal policies
ECB paper analyses impact of oil shocks on exchange rates
Working paper assesses impact of oil shocks on exchange rates between oil importers and exporters; finds no systematic appreciation pressure on oil exporters following a shock
BoE paper assesses contingent capital risk
Financial Stability Paper examines contingent capital’s risk to stability when used to fulfil banks’ equity requirements; warns that such capital may cause wider problems
IMF paper examines financial intermediation costs in low-income countries
Working paper considers causes of high financial intermediation costs in low-income countries; finds that lack of competition and various bank-specific factors lead to high costs
Bank of Canada paper estimates settlement balance demand
Working paper estimates aggregate demand for settlement balances; suggests that the central bank’s supply of $3 billion is reasonable
New York Fed report models herd behaviour
Fed staff report models financial market herding behaviour using NYSE transaction data; finds herding is “fairly pervasive” on some trading days
IMF paper examines capital flow management
Working paper considers methods of managing large-scale capital flows in Czech Republic, Poland and Romania; argues capital controls should not be used
ECB paper examines pre-Volcker monetary policy
Working paper sets out dynamic general equilibrium model to analyse Federal Reserve monetary policy; finds Fed policy pre-Volcker was more effective than widely thought
Bank of Italy paper analyses impact of organised crime
Working paper estimates counterfactual economic performance in the absence of organised crime; finds mafia presence lowers Italian growth path
IMF paper relates fiscal consolidation and growth
Paper discusses relationship between fiscal consolidation and short- and long-run growth; warns that rapid consolidation can be harmful
IMF paper assesses welfare effects of monetary integration
Paper considers welfare effect of monetary union in Africa; finds significant benefits due to policy credibility and macroeconomic stability
IMF paper analyses savings and investment response to shocks
IMF researchers study response of savings and investment to income shocks; find high volatility of permanent shocks creates “volatility trap”
Central Bank of Colombia paper evaluates CrashMetrics risk estimation
Researchers examine CrashMetrics risk estimation methodology; find it makes better predictions during crises than traditional stress tests
IMF paper discusses renminbi internationalisation
Working paper considers historical conditions leading to international use of currencies; finds that conditions in China suggest gradual internationalisation of renminbi