Research
IMF paper examines financial intermediation costs in low-income countries
Working paper considers causes of high financial intermediation costs in low-income countries; finds that lack of competition and various bank-specific factors lead to high costs
Bank of Canada paper estimates settlement balance demand
Working paper estimates aggregate demand for settlement balances; suggests that the central bank’s supply of $3 billion is reasonable
New York Fed report models herd behaviour
Fed staff report models financial market herding behaviour using NYSE transaction data; finds herding is “fairly pervasive” on some trading days
IMF paper examines capital flow management
Working paper considers methods of managing large-scale capital flows in Czech Republic, Poland and Romania; argues capital controls should not be used
ECB paper examines pre-Volcker monetary policy
Working paper sets out dynamic general equilibrium model to analyse Federal Reserve monetary policy; finds Fed policy pre-Volcker was more effective than widely thought
Bank of Italy paper analyses impact of organised crime
Working paper estimates counterfactual economic performance in the absence of organised crime; finds mafia presence lowers Italian growth path
IMF paper relates fiscal consolidation and growth
Paper discusses relationship between fiscal consolidation and short- and long-run growth; warns that rapid consolidation can be harmful
IMF paper assesses welfare effects of monetary integration
Paper considers welfare effect of monetary union in Africa; finds significant benefits due to policy credibility and macroeconomic stability
IMF paper analyses savings and investment response to shocks
IMF researchers study response of savings and investment to income shocks; find high volatility of permanent shocks creates “volatility trap”
Central Bank of Colombia paper evaluates CrashMetrics risk estimation
Researchers examine CrashMetrics risk estimation methodology; find it makes better predictions during crises than traditional stress tests
IMF paper discusses renminbi internationalisation
Working paper considers historical conditions leading to international use of currencies; finds that conditions in China suggest gradual internationalisation of renminbi
BIS paper examines macro-prudential models and tools
Working paper considers the effectiveness of macro-prudential models in understanding the role of the financial sector in relation to the real economy
Peru central bank paper analyses effect of mobile phones
Researchers consider the effect of mobile phone coverage on household welfare in Peru; find an increase in income, assets and expenditure after coverage is extended
BIS paper studies financial transmission channels
Working paper analyses role of financial system in affecting economic growth and stability; emphasises importance of financial sector in macroeconomic models
RBI paper considers monetary transmission in India
Reserve Bank of India working paper focuses on operation of monetary transmission mechanism in India; demonstrates significant causal effect of rate changes
IMF paper quantifies structural subsidies for Sifis
Researchers from the International Monetary Fund estimate value of subsidies implied by expectations of government support for Sifis; find a sizeable cost advantage for these institutions
BoE paper studies forecasting models
Working paper from Bank of England compares models with time-varying parameters in forecasting UK GDP growth, inflation and interest rates under structural change
IMF paper analyses situation in Togo
Researchers evaluate public investment surges, growth and debt sustainability in Togo; find very large increase in public investment would have positive macroeconomic effects in the long-run
IMF paper studies credit growth in the Philippines
Research analyses determinants of credit growth and interest margins in the Philippines and Asia; finds factors such as higher growth and lower inflation reduce net interest margins
IMF paper evaluates credit risk assessment methods
Working paper compares cumulative accuracy profile and receiver operating characteristic analysis methods for evaluating credit risk
IMF paper investigates capital inflows relationships with other factors
IMF researchers study determinants and inter-relationships between capital inflows, financial development and domestic investment in developing countries
ECB working paper studies MPC group size and voting rules
Researchers looking into the relationships between committee size and voting rules in monetary policy setting find in large committees, majority voting is likely to enhance policy outcomes
Bank of Israel paper evaluates past monetary policy decisions
Discussion paper from the Bank of Israel investigates patterns in monetary policy decisions and their outcomes in the country
IMF paper looks at alternative monetary policy rules for India
International Monetary Fund researchers show forward-looking rules for monetary policy formulation provide better results in India