Research
RBI paper develops method for estimating counterfeit volumes
Researchers redesign inverse sampling statistical method, aiming to measure extent of counterfeiting in India with ‘credible precision’
Banque de France research proposes framework to address stress-test failings
Researchers use statistical tests for detection of outliers to characterise severity and duration of stressed periods; suggests length of shock depends on the initial variables
IMF paper says competition is a motive for forex intervention by emerging markets
Study examines activity of emerging market economies in foreign exchange markets; finds competitiveness can be a motivating factor
Icelandic paper finds country's response to banking crisis was optimal
Research by Central Bank of Iceland looks at various alternatives to Iceland’s handling of the 2008 banking collapse, but finds none yield better outcomes than the baseline scenario
BoE research warns of coming financing problems for private equity firms
Quarterly bulletin article highlights problems on the horizon for private equity firms that over-leveraged before the financial crisis, as their debt comes to maturity under much tighter conditions
IMF attempts to sculpt better stress tests
Stress tests are ‘more art than science’ but can be improved and expanded, according to IMF study; cannot be standardised across countries
IMF research warns short-term fiscal consolidation pain could become more serious
Paper says short-term growth impact from fiscal tightening could be worsened if markets or policy-makers overreact; emphasises this does not mean budget cuts should be scrapped
Dutch central bank paper examines impact of capital controls on currency crises
Study finds lower capital controls reduce the probability of a currency crisis, particularly in advanced economies where there is greater institutional development
Bundesbank paper raises concerns over accuracy of systemic risk measures
Researchers find market-based systemic risk measures may give a façade of safety even as banks enter ‘major tail risks’
Bank of Finland highlights ‘astonishing’ lack of information on Chinese government debt
Researcher warns opaque debt statistics are to China’s detriment and could threaten renminbi internationalisation; urges government to begin politically difficult process of improving transparency
Irish paper finds more spending could help government’s ‘precarious’ finances
Central Bank of Ireland research technical paper suggests country’s close sovereign-bank link means government spending to reduce mortgage arrears will have a greater effect than previously thought
IMF paper advocates hybrid discretion and rules-based macro-prudential policy
Researchers say discretionary systems can be gamed but rules struggle to properly account for risk; combination of ‘strong baseline’ and time-varying component gives best results
ECB researcher views liquidity shocks through enhanced DGE lens
Model aims to more accurately capture equity premia, finding that this amplifies liquidity shocks and explains a ‘significant fraction’ of business cycle fluctuations
BIS researchers shine light into ‘dark’ FX markets
Working paper finds valuable information in foreign exchange order flows, giving large forex traders a significant competitive advantage
Monetary policy is ‘mirror image’ of financial shocks, says ECB paper
Study finds that monetary policy is effective in mitigating financial shocks because it is capable of reversing the impact of shocks on GDP and investment
Italian credit guarantee scheme helps firms borrow cheaper for longer
Bank of Italy researchers provide empirical evidence for effectiveness of credit guarantee scheme, which helped firms without increasing debt volumes
Swiss paper finds SNB's 2009 bond purchase policy narrowed spreads
Researchers find 'unique' Swiss bond purchase programme had a 'discounted portfolio balance effect of the expected purchases, as distinct from policy signalling'
Riksbank report deflects criticism over persistent below-target inflation
Economic commentary says low inflation is partly caused by factors outside the Riksbank’s control; argues tight policy cannot take all the blame for high unemployment
Colombian paper recommends using neural networks in yield curve forecasts
Neural networks, which process information in a similar manner to the human brain, are tested for their ability to improve yield curve forecasts in Latin America
ECB paper says government spending harms growth
Study analyses impact of government revenues and spending on long-term growth; finds income taxes and public investment can both have a negative impact
NY Fed paper says monitoring is essential to fix Dodd-Frank’s ‘significant limitations’
A growth in shadow banking is one risk from the Dodd-Frank Act that must be addressed by broad and forward-looking monitoring, a staff report says
Dutch paper suggests using loan-to-deposit ratio in macroprudential policy
Study says LTD ratio could be a useful tool for regulator to address liquidity risk; suggests counter-cyclical policy to encourage lending in tough times
Hungary central bank staff review their monetary policy model
The National Bank of Hungary's Monetary Policy Model has been in place for two years - staff publish a review of its performance ahead of governor switch
Emerging markets exports most sensitive to FX changes, says French paper
Banque de France researchers find exports in emerging markets are relatively sensitive to exchange rate changes, while US imports are relatively impervious