Research
ECB paper explores current account reversals
Study finds that some external adjustments are more likely to trigger a current account reversal than others; this is determined by the country’s exchange rate regime
IMF paper searches for deeper insight into the output gap
Working paper proposes method of estimating and decomposing output gaps; inflation found to have low weight
Fin paper says hybrid monetary policy regimes are unsustainable
Bank of Finland working paper finds most former Soviet Republics operate without a free-floating exchange rate or hard peg; says hybrid policies are unsustainable
Fed paper investigates decline in US labour market mobility
Study identifies drop in interstate migration since 1980s; attributes fall to stronger internal labour markets rather than demographic or sociological factors
South African paper models international spillovers
Study finds South Africa is a ‘net receiver’ of spillovers from other economies; suggests this is likely to persist as business cycle synchronisation has increased
NY Fed paper assesses risk of fire sales in tri-party repo markets
Staff report finds limited tools are available to reduce the damage from pre-default fire sales but says there are no options currently available once a default has occurred
BoJ paper suggests models may misrepresent impact of easing at ZLB
Working paper questions why many studies in monetary economics use model that does not account for zero lower bound; finds model tends to underestimate term premia
RBI paper scrutinises monetary policy transmission
Research analyses strength of monetary policy transmission in range of Indian financial markets; says it is conducted most effectively to money markets but has ‘limited’ influence on stock markets
Korea paper warns developing economies over financial openness
Research suggests open capital markets in developing economies create output volatility; suggests Asian countries are the least stable in a crisis
Bundesbank paper finds some banks can improve stability via income diversification
Discussion paper says move into non-interest income sources stabilises smaller and more retail-orientated banks, but destabilises investment banks
IMF paper examines emerging market counter-cyclical monetary policy
Emerging markets should target inflation for its counter-cyclical benefits as well as output variability, researchers find
ECB paper models central bank liquidity provision
Researchers create model to find optimal level of central bank liquidity provision, by determining the most appropriate collateral framework
Bundesbank paper examines dynamics of crisis repo funding
Discussion paper finds changing pattern of fund management during global financial crisis, as ability of parent banks to protect subsidiaries dwindled; signals importance of strong capital base
ECB paper builds eurozone financial conditions indexes
Researchers confirm financial conditions differed across the eurozone before and after the crisis; gap shrinks when monetary policy variables are included in indexes
BoJ paper creates new framework for identifying monetary policy shocks
Working paper uses TVP-VAR model to identify the impact of conventional and unconventional monetary policy shocks on the real economy at the zero lower bound
Croatian paper develops financial conditions index
Study seeks to assess financial conditions in Croatia using data from domestic and foreign debt markets; relates findings to the real economy
Italian survey suggests risk and time preferences can predict trust
Working paper examines predictive power of risk and time preferences for trust, and analyses role of trust in explaining socio-economic outcomes
BOFIT paper finds Turkish depositors prefer banks with political connections
Study analysing Turkish banks finds those with former members of parliament among their top executives are subject to 'less discipline' from depositors
Bundesbank research proposes improved structure for counterparty credit risk
Discussion paper finds ‘quadri-partite’ structure gives best results for managing counterparty credit risk
BoE paper backs CCP discretion over optimal resource allocation
Researchers conclude that central counterparties should be given some leeway to set their own provisions against loss
ECB researchers analyse expert forecasters' predictive abilities
Working paper aims to find where the value lies in the ECB's Survey of Professional Forecasters
BIS researchers fear separation rules could make banks harder to resolve
Recommendations from Vickers, Volcker and Liikanen examined in new paper focusing on implications for global banking business models
‘Belief-twisting' macro shocks can reverberate through generations, research finds
Banque de France researcher examines how households' expectations can take decades to recover after a macroeconomic shock
Polish paper examines banks’ risks when state safety net grows
Study finds that banks in central Europe take higher levels of risks under a larger deposit insurance scheme; less so in times of financial crisis