Research
Colombian paper draws policy lessons from credit- and business-cycle links
Researchers find lagged response of growth to the credit cycle, making it challenging for policy-makers to target both financial and real variables with a single instrument
Paper examines roster of RMB bilateral swap partners
BOFIT researchers find the list of countries signing a swap agreement with China is determined by a range of factors - and suggest the agreements are not used as a ‘soft power' political tool
Policy-maker prudence can't help early warning efficacy, IMF paper finds
Working paper finds parametric early-warning systems are preferable to non-parametric; greater prudence lets policy-makers call more crisis episodes correctly, but at the cost of more false alarms
French paper evaluates forecasting strategies
Working paper says a predictive model that combines information sets is capable of outperforming alternative models that combine forecasts; tests models on French GDP data
Kansas City Fed article finds markets anticipated QE announcements
Article in the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s latest economic review says that markets foreshadowed changes in asset purchase programme; may have affected long-term interest rates
New IMF paper finds fiscal consolidation boosts poor country growth in medium term
New VAR methodology leads researchers to conclude that fiscal consolidation hurts low-income countries less, and for a shorter period
IMF paper proposes ‘more ambitious’ benchmark design
Working paper calls current benchmark designs ‘a legacy from history’; proposes own design to better represent actual wholesale funding costs
IMF paper dissects 'remarkably stable’ US inflation
Working paper examines factors behind favourable inflation performance in the US following the Great Recession, identifying three main causes
Bank of Mexico paper backs credit multiplier as amplification mechanism in DSGE
Working paper finds that credit multipliers do produce the amplification effects expected of them in a DSGE model and are not failing as some suggest
Colombian paper trumpets transparent forex intervention
Research says ‘pre-announced and transparent’ interventions had a greater impact on the Colombian exchange rate than more discretionary or ‘dirty’ purchases
IMF researcher argues bank competition policy should take aim at TBTF
Developments in advanced economy bank sectors over the last 20 years mean competition policy should concentrate less on increasing competition and more on reducing too-big-to-fail
Fed paper analyses impact of public views on FOMC forecasts
Working paper says FOMC forecasts are influenced by both internal and external views; analyses the weighting given by committee members to each
Danish paper uses three centuries of data to show tail risks underestimated
Research says severe stress cannot be properly understood with short time horizons; suggests results could be used to design tougher stress tests
DNB working paper puts forward Eurobonds solution
Proposal would see Eurobonds distributed by an ‘independent budgetary authority' and would be made available depending on a member state's fiscal responsibility as per the Maastricht Treaty
Fed research digs deeper into operation of QE
Working paper looks at the composition of investors selling assets in the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing programmes, finding evidence for a ‘preferred habitat’ theory of transmission
IMF paper refines measurement of monetary policy transmission
Working paper breaks monetary policy into endogenous and exogenous changes, finding this is an important distinction for explaining variations in policy transmission across banks
BIS paper finds higher US bank taxes may have only moved stability risk
Research into higher taxes imposed on wholesale funding by US banks finds they did reduce reliance on short-term borrowing, but says risks may simply have been pushed into foreign banks
IMF paper proposes measure of tail-risk events
Study seeks to quantify what constitutes a systemic financial stress event, and tests the resulting metrics on 11 early-warning indicators in Europe and the US
Fed paper says macro-prudential policy is not a new idea
Research studies various macro-prudential policies employed in the past, seeking insights for contemporary policy-makers
BoE research examines links between channels of macro-prudential policy
Financial stability paper looks at the well-studied allocation channel and the less-studied signalling channel, finding the two to be closely linked
Philadelphia Fed paper investigates price discovery
Study questions how government support can best help kick-start the process of price discovery in a frozen market
Norges Bank paper seeks to solve ‘exchange rate puzzles’
Working paper looks to research into ‘market microstructure’ to explain rapid evolution of foreign exchange markets
New York Fed paper launches DSGE defence
Staff report says the standard DSGE model produced ‘surprisingly accurate’ forecasts during the financial crisis and subsequent recovery
ECB research uses game theory to assess optimal T2S adaptation
Working paper attempts to find optimal lump-sum investment by central securities depositories migrating to Target2 Securities, and tests possibility of tacit collusion