United States
Public spending cuts have bigger multiplier than fiscal stimulus – paper
Research weakens case for expansionary policies, say authors
Google’s Hal Varian on how technology is changing economics
Google’s chief economist talks to Christopher Jeffery about how big data and machine learning are facilitating changes in economic thinking; discusses the impact technical breakthroughs may have for central banks
Bank of Mexico hikes rates as inflation rises
Central bank resumes tightening path as Mexican economy faces trade and currency challenges
Fed backtracks on CCAR cleared swaps exposure
Regulator had also postponed plan to feed cleared client exposure into G-Sib rankings
Demography, tech reduce US natural unemployment rate – paper
Baby boomers remain active longer, and older workers record lower levels of unemployment
Fed hikes as Yellen hails strong job growth
Janet Yellen gives her last press conference as Federal Reserve chair
Early asset purchases much more successful – BIS paper
Authors find effectiveness falls over time as the shock wears off, questioning the value of long-running quantitative easing
Financial distress in the US is concentrated in a small percentage of consumers
Around 10% of consumers account for 50% of all distress events, research finds
Fed finalises new market benchmarks
Three transaction-based alternatives to US dollar Libor will launch in 2018
Paper: foreign fund inflows raised US pre-crisis risk-taking
The Bank of Italy paper correlates data on foreign inflows with four indicators of risk
Fed proposes sharing more information about stress tests
Proposal includes insights about how the regulator estimates hypothetical losses
People: Fiji appoints deputy; Commission proposes new SRB chair term
Esala Masitabua will become deputy governor in Fiji on January 1, 2018; European Commission proposes extending Elke König’s mandate as chair of the SRB; and more
Diversified export markets may offset Mexican Nafta showdown
Bank of Mexico sees a failure to renegotiate the trade deal as the biggest risk to the economy
BIS top body poised to approve Basel III
The GHOS meets on December 7, and all signs indicate it will finally give Basel III the green light
Richmond Fed appoints McKinsey executive its next president
Tom Barkin will serve as a full FOMC member as of 2018
Small open economies benefit from QE spillovers – IMF paper
Fed’s QE had a similar net positive effect in Canada to that in the US
Fed hikes have created ‘paradoxical’ easing – BIS
Review draws parallels between current episode and “Greenspan conundrum” of mid-2000s
Goodfriend nominated to Fed board
Central bank veteran to fill one of the four vacant spots on the board of governors
Strong growth and lower unemployment allows Fed to normalise policy, Yellen says
Outgoing chairwoman adds policy is not preset and will depend on economic data
Slower health care price rises limiting US inflation, San Francisco Fed paper says
Medicare prices rise by 1.1% annually since 2012, compared with 3.5% in mid-2000s
Powell to explain policy outlook before US Senate
Nominee set to defend loose policy stance and independence of central bank as new chair
Ultra-low rates hampered productivity in US, researchers find
A slower pace of policy normalisation can help boost productivity and growth
San Francisco Fed study: cash is not dead yet
Demand for notes and coins is “strong”, says the study, with cash in circulation growing in the majority of nations
December hike in focus despite FOMC inflation worries
Some Fed policymakers fret that inflation expectations are too low to bring inflation back to target, but broad view is of an economy gathering pace