United States
Phillips curve differs depending on labour market – Fed study
Research finds curve to be flat in normal markets and steep in tight ones
US Bancorp ever more reliant on LCR relief
HQLAs would only cover 91.4% of bank’s net cash outflows without Fed’s cap
Yuan will not rival dollar for foreseeable future – Fed study
Figures show aggregate usage of currency lags behind that of euro, yen and pound
The post-Archegos risk model rebuild begins… slowly
Following regulatory prodding, banks start to overhaul counterparty risk models. A flurry of new research on the topic may aid the effort
Lower-paid workers face greatest impact from AI – BIS paper
Risk of core skills being replaced, and jobs being lost, is higher for people on low incomes
Bank closures lead to job cuts at small businesses – Fed study
Research finds that if 25% of local branches close, employment growth falls by four percentage points
Fed hikes stress capital buffers for 18 US banks
Nine dealers face record-high SCBs as poor performance in latest DFAST weighs on capital requirements
Wildfire pollution depresses home values and rents – study
Dallas Fed research finds effects extend to areas “thousands of miles” from where fires take place
Fed study finds there are no truly offline payment systems
Hybrid solutions mitigate some risks, say researchers
Triggers of August market ‘flare-up’ still in place, BIS warns
Leveraged positions remain at risk of sudden unwinding, as margin calls play amplifying role
BLS revises US employment downward
Bureau says 818,000 fewer jobs were created over year to March than it had previously estimated
Fed likely to cut rates in September – FOMC minutes
Participants at July meeting said they would need greater confidence inflation was falling
Fed chair says time has come to adjust policy
Powell warns of ‘unmistakable’ labour market cooling in speech at Jackson Hole summit
‘Beveridge threshold’ can explain US soft landing – study
Gauti Eggertson tells Jackson Hole attendees why many economists were too gloomy about growth
Book notes: Easy money, cryptocurrency, casino capitalism, and the golden age of fraud, Ben McKenzie with Jacob Silverman
Casts light on how shady crypto characters defraud consumers but does little to identify and control such fraudsters while protecting the public
Greedflation, if it ever existed, is correcting itself
Steve Kamin constructs a “wage gap” to assess inflationary pressures in the US
Lending spreads may dampen monetary policy – research
Rate hikes appear to have been muffled and cuts might be too, say Kansas City Fed authors
NY Fed chief unveils real-time reserves calculation framework
John Williams and fellow researchers cite five measures of reserves’ ampleness or scarcity
US housing may become increasingly affordable – paper
Authors cite income growth and housing price appreciation that trails inflation as contributory factors
US and China bolster collaboration on financial stability
PBoC and Treasury strengthen communication channels for managing periods of stress
Growing divide between ethereum investors – Philadelphia Fed study
Paper claims returns disadvantage “minnows” more than would be case with conventional assets
Trump administration would pursue ‘course correction’ at Fed
Former Fed adviser says ex-president would try to reform an institution he already sees as politicised
Medium-term US inflation expectations hit record low
However, expert says infrastructure projects could push prices to higher-than-expected levels
Did the Fed make a mistake holding rates in July?
Experts warn Fed not to signal “panic” but to be ready to act aggressively if needed