Economics
IMF deputy on drivers of the Asian recovery
International Monetary Fund first deputy managing director Murillo Portugal says Australia has done well as a result of Chinese commodity demand, but must watch out for a cooling off
Bank of Japan Review – Measuring potential growth in Japan
Bank of Japan review notes difficulties with various methods used to forecast growth, says potential shortcoming should be at the fore of policymakers’ minds
An improved model for predicting direct investment equity income
Paper from the Danish central bank finds that combining past profitability and change in expected consumption growth provides a better forecast
Norges Bank sees $1.28 billion loss
Norwegian central bank says deficit the result of the appreciation of its currency; cannot transfer funds to the country’s Treasury as a result
BIS on the origins of macroprudential
Bank for International Settlements research traces the etymology of macroprudential, noting that it has become a buzzword in the aftermath of the crisis
Merge G20 and IMF: Norway’s Gjedrem
Norges Bank governor Svein Gjedrem calls for the two bodies to be combined, and underpinned by principles that mean all countries, irrespective of size, have their voices heard
Bank of England – Agents Summary of Business Conditions (February)
Bank report on public opinions with regards to economic conditions and the ongoing recovery shows most people in the UK were feeling definite effects of a pick-up, although it remained slow
Discretionary policy with Calvo pricing: Kansas Fed paper
Kansas Fed research shows that sticky price models, such as the Taylor and Calvo variants, are not identical, and can have important policy implications
Fed’s Duke on lending to small business in the US
Duke optimistic of recovery in lending in 2010
Slaves of defunct economists
European Central Bank’s Lorenzo Bini Smaghi revisits Keynes
MPC’s Miles leaps to the defence of QE
Rate-setting committee’s external member David Miles says the Bank’s asset purchase programme has shored up the private sector despite focus on gilt purchases
Bank of Japan – Financial Markets Report
Japanese central bank’s report says Dubai crisis shed light on sensitive investors still were, notes that while accommodative policies soothe some market players, others worry about flows to emerging markets
Real-time activity index shows depth of recession
Philadelphia Fed paper constructs index of real-time macroeconomic information, showing that the recent recession was defined by its severity relative to its length
Emerging markets need a voice: Krueger
Ex-IMF first deputy managing director Anne Krueger writes that countries such as India and China must have a presence of the international stage reflecting their weight in the global economy
Income convergence and inflation in central and eastern Europe
Bank of Estonia paper finds that income levels and inflation are correlated in the long term, but not in the short-term, with the process of convergence appearing to be slow
ECB – Monetary developments in the euro area (January)
European Central Bank statistics show broad money in the eurozone grew modestly in January
Export recovery will lose speed: BoJ’s Yamaguchi
Bank of Japan deputy governor Hirohide Yamaguchi says pace of export and production recovery to slow, but economy will gain momentum in the summer
Central Bank of Ireland – Developments in Private Sector Credit
Irish central bank’s note shows private sector credit continued to shrink, and lending both to banks and non-banks dropped in the final quarter of 2009
Monetary misperceptions in a New Keynesian model
Centre for Economic Policy Research paper finds that the difference between primary and revised monetary figures captures misperceptions, which are key
King on QE: we’ve filled a hole
Bank of England governor says pumping £200 billion into economy averted “very serious contraction” in money supply; flags concerns over eurozone’s stuttering recovery
Focus on fundamentals outperforms carry trades: IMF paper
International Monetary Fund paper finds that an investment strategy determined by analysis of the real effective exchange rate ultimately does better than one that relies on borrowing cheap and lending at higher rates
Rogoff predicts wave of sovereign defaults
Greece will not be the only country to face threat of bankruptcy, ex-IMF chief economist Kenneth Rogoff warns
Bank of England – Trends in Lending (February)
Bank report shows lending to businesses, home buyers and consumer remains constrained
Australia has learnt to deal with mining booms: Battellino
Reserve Bank of Australia deputy governor Ric Battellino says floating exchange rate, refined monetary and fiscal frameworks key to coping with demand surge