Central Banks
James Bullard on 2% rates, tariffs and Fed leadership
The president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis speaks about the impact of US trade policies, the disruption to the banking industry from Silicon Valley, shrinking the Fed balance sheet and the potential for agent-based modelling
Spanish banks strongly influenced by knowledge of firms, paper finds
Banks’ understanding of clients helped smooth credit contraction during financial crisis – researchers
Uganda keeps rates on hold despite rising core inflation
Policy necessary to ensure “sustainable growth”, governor says
Argentinian central bank takes drastic action over currency crisis
BCRA hikes key rate by 500 basis points and pledges major forex and debt changes
Rupee falls to record low as instability hits emerging markets
Indian currency falls to 70 against the US dollar for the first time
Central Bank of Cyprus suspends subsidiaries of two Russian banks
CBC says decision was influenced by Russian central bank’s decisions but uncertainty remains
Dealers seek FRTB carve-out for Libor transition
Swaps could be hit with capital add-on as liquidity tails off in Libor
Podcast: David Hendry and John Muellbauer on empirical macro
The econometricians cast a sceptical eye over DSGE models and weigh up some alternatives
Older population increases financial fraud risks – Atlanta Fed
Most financial exploitation of elderly goes unreported, researcher says
US expansion set to continue in H2 2018 – Dallas Fed
US enjoys strong consumer spending, a healthy labour market and inflation on target
Weak inflation keeps rates at record low in Israel
Bureau of statistics revised economic forecasts upwards in the face of solid growth
Goldman, Morgan Stanley push for stress test changes
Balance sheets will shrink in a crisis, not grow, trading houses argue
Turkish lira reaches fresh low as crisis impacts emerging markets
Central bank announces lower reserve requirements in bid to increase liquidity
New York Fed publishes nowcasting code
Matlab code for estimating a dynamic factor model now available in online repository
West Bank weakness drives economic slowdown in Palestine
Palestine Monetary Authority notes “significant drop” in West Bank conditions index
Non-linear mortgage features can impact policymaking – BoE paper
Non-linear features of mortgages impact policymaking in a DSGE model, the authors find
The perilous road to normality
Many central banks are starting to tighten policy, but their room for error is limited and their final destination unclear. What more can they do?