Economics
US and German economies suffer largest quarterly contraction in decades
Official figures say second quarter saw biggest US GDP decline since the Great Depression
Covid-19 hampering high-tech development in Israel – BoI research
Pandemic exposes risk of overreliance on international financing in a key economic sector
Book notes: The state of economics, the state of the world, edited by Basu, Rosenblatt and Sepúlveda
The 2016 contributions of Nobel Prize-winning economists and others remain relevant to today
IMF research highlights limits of exchange rate flexibility
New dataset sheds light on role of dominant-currency invoicing for exchange rate dynamics
BIS stats show surge in cross-border lending during pandemic
Most of the money flowed to advanced economies and offshore centres, BIS says
Labour market situation is ‘complicated’ – RBA’s Lowe
Unemployment likely to worsen despite initial signs of recovery, governor says
Singapore faces most severe downturn since independence – Menon
Singapore’s economic situation remains “dire” and activity will be below pre-crisis levels “for quite a while”
IMF and World Bank chiefs call for more action on debt relief
But G20 fails to agree extension to the Debt Service Suspension Initiative
Brainard urges caution about US recovery
Bounce in activity came earlier than expected but major risks still loom, Fed board member says
Tenreyro sheds light on BoE’s ‘epi-macro’ modelling
Staff have conducted several virus simulations, but uncertainty remains high
Yaron supports Israel’s increased fiscal stimulus
Package could push budget deficit to 13% of GDP in 2020
Headline inflation to stray into negative territory, Bank of Thailand reports
Sharp decline in oil prices and government measures push forecast for headline inflation to -1.7%
Growth has replaced slack in Phillips curve relationship – Cleveland Fed paper
Findings could have “substantial disinflationary” implications during current recession, researchers say
Covid-19 is chance to lower carbon dioxide trajectory – SF Fed research
CO2 emissions likely to fall dramatically in 2020; targeted fiscal spending and telecommuting trends could cut trajectory, researchers say
Balancing data policies: what Covid-19 taught us
New rules are needed for data-sharing at a national and international level, write Theodoros Evgeniou, David Hardoon and Anton Ovchinnikov
EMEs should lower rates when faced with capital outflows – Fed research
Not cutting rates could worsen GDP and accelerate outflows, researchers find
Researchers test forward-looking uncertainty measures
BoE paper says the measures are likely to be useful for policy-making in the face of sudden shocks
US unemployment stats understate problem – research
Peterson Institute research says BLS figures fail to include all workers affected by pandemic
Eurozone inflation reached 0.3% in June
Eurostat estimates show significant differences in inflationary pressures between countries
Dividends should be subject to macro-pru limits – ECB paper
Measure would reduce volatility in loan supply and equity levels, economist argues
US facing new challenges as Covid cases surge – Powell
Powell warns of public confidence hit as US infections soar past previous peak
Financial shocks explain ‘large share’ of US business cycle – BoE paper
New identification method helps avoid pitfalls encountered by earlier research, author says
Research looks at possible East Asian trade deals
US and China stand to be worst off if trade war continues, Peterson Institute researchers find