Unemployment
Clarida: ‘Stagflation is not my baseline case’
Fed vice-chair says inflation situation not akin to 1970s
IMF: growth prospects dim as pandemic lingers
Fund revises down growth forecasts, warning of inflation, disruption and divergence
Unemployment falls across North America
US recovery is weaker than expected, while Canada reaches pre-pandemic jobs levels
Bank of Israel again holds rate steady
But MPC signals it is ready to end QE programme if economic recovery continues
RBNZ begins monetary tightening with 25bp hike
Central bank is confident inflation will return to target, but says growth will be “volatile”
Larry Summers on stagflation risks, lessons from Delphi and never-ending ‘punch’
The former US Treasury secretary speaks about fiscal ‘overexpansion’, Fed/Treasury debt discord, the pitfalls of ‘unknown unknowns’ and central bankers ‘unable’ to remove the ‘punchbowl’
Elizabeth Warren publicly rejects Powell reappointment
Senator calls Jerome Powell “a dangerous man to head up the Fed”
Brainard cites Delta in dovish speech
Fed governor warns “employment is still a bit short of the mark” for taper
BoE cuts UK growth forecast
Inflation likely to stay above 4% for first half of 2022 amid supply constraints and energy squeeze – MPC
Demand shocks can have permanent impact on US economy – Fed paper
Authors find hysteresis is an important driver of longer-term growth trend in US
Sarb governor urges shift to narrow inflation target
Kganyago says it was a “mistake” to maintain a target band for so long
RBA delays bond purchase review until 2022
Central bank pushes back review as new Covid outbreak threatens to delay recovery
Policy-makers and staff often determine headline forecasts
Joint approach may help conquer systemic bias
Powell says taper test has been met ‘with regard to inflation’
Fed chair tells Jackson Hole conference that slowing QE this year “could be appropriate”
Is the ECB’s strategy review enough?
The reformed framework may allow greater stimulus to tackle weak inflation expectations, but the Governing Council is already divided on what to do next
Eurozone returns to growth in Q2
Employment increases, but economic expansion is uneven across economies
The distant cry of hawks? Fed begins tightening talk
Richard Clarida gives a date for hiking interest rates, as debate on taper timing continues
Fed launches standing repo facilities
Facilities to be open to foreign central banks and domestic primary dealers; FOMC keeps policy on hold
Unemployment has non-linear relationship to inflation – Fed paper
Authors say their findings could be relevant to debates over inflation targets
US unemployment rate stable at 5.9%
Little sign of ‘substantial further progress’ FOMC wants to see before taper
Powell says US is recovering faster than expected
Majority of FOMC members now expect policy rate hike in 2023, with no decision yet on taper
Inflation expectations rising – NY Fed survey
Survey finds consumers predicting higher prices, but also better labour market conditions
ECB policy paper says unconventional policy worked
Paper says QE purchases explain “lion’s share” of changes to eurozone yield curves
A return of the inflation monster?
There are fears that a shift in intellectual approach towards running economies ‘hot’ could herald a return of the money-eating inflation era