Phillips curve
Low-paid jobs may explain flat Phillips curve – research
As recovery continues, this phenomenon should dissipate, authors say
John Williams on the neutral rate of interest and mandate change
The president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco speaks about the plunge in the natural rate of interest, and why it means central banks should work together to review their price stability targets
Central banks may be thinking wrongly about inflation – Borio
BIS economist says inflation may not always and everywhere be a monetary phenomenon, which could help explain why the natural rate is so low
Brexit brings inflationary risks, Carney says
“Continued erosion of slack” is putting pressure on MPC, governor says
Falling import prices and lower expectations hamper Fed, Brainard says
Long period of low inflation may affect households’ inflation expectations, Fed board member says
Bullard: low unemployment does not mean high inflation
Recent research shows US unemployment could fall to 2.5%, while inflation would be 1.86%, says St Louis Fed president
Flexible working may shift Nairu, ECB’s Mersch warns
Technology may increase insecurity and weaken collective bargaining, says senior ECB figure
US policy having a larger impact on credit – BIS paper
Monetary policy’s effects on credit and housing markets have grown while the effects on inflation have weakened, paper finds
BoE’s Haldane examines changing nature of work
Rise of “gig economy” and self-employment may have weakened wage-setting power among workers, the BoE chief economist says; he indicates a willingness to vote for a hike later this year
BoE research finds support for Phillips curve in micro data
Authors turn to direct measures of firms’ expectations and employ new instrumental variables in search of empirical support for the Phillips curve
Book notes: A few hares to chase, by Alan Bollard
The former Reserve Bank of New Zealand governor has produced a interesting account of the life of engineer-turned-economist Bill Phillips
Models using service inflation better at predicting economic trends, Cleveland Fed paper finds
Researchers find economic forecasting accuracy improves when based on models that tie together the unemployment rate with inflation in services
Inflation targeting should be improved, not replaced, RBA paper says
Rather than a ‘fundamental re-engineering’ of inflation targeting, central banks should adopt a flexible approach that pays some heed to output, authors argue
Household expectations help flesh out inflation picture, research finds
Research published in the latest Bank of Canada review argues that looking at the behaviour of expectations since the crisis helps in understanding evolution of inflation
RBA paper finds only weak support for sticky information Phillips curve
Paper provides ‘first estimates’ of a sticky information Phillips curve for Australia, finding the curve fits poorly with the inflation-targeting era but better in earlier years
ECB paper models Philips curve from professional forecasts
Working paper finds the curve consistent with professional forecasts has flattened since the financial crisis, with the relationship between inflation and unemployment weakening
French paper models flattening Philips curve
Working paper develops a two-country, new-Keynesian model to replicate the flattening of the curve in developed countries over the past 25 years, a trend widely attributed to globalisation
Paper tackles US inflation puzzle with new Phillips curve
Authors of research published by IMF find core inflation movements can be explained by anchored expectations and short-term unemployment “stories”
Dallas Fed report calls for better understanding of global finance
Globalisation annual report urges monetary policy-makers to take account of global financial flows and seeks a better understanding of interdependence
Leading central bankers unsure about impact of technology on monetary policy
Carney, Kuroda and Coeure debate the elusive Phillips curve in Davos; rejecting ‘technological pessimism', Carney says ‘just catching up is a huge opportunity of growth potential'
BoE research identifies strong impact from long-term unemployment on inflation
Working paper finds evidence that models incorporating linear Phillips curves are underestimating the effect of long-term unemployment on wage inflation
ECB finds Phillips curve 'insufficient’ to forecast inflation
Article in latest ECB monthly bulletin finds evidence of a ‘curve-type relationship’ between inflation and economic slack, but the specification is ‘subject to considerable uncertainty’
Wages more sticky in the US than in Japan, BoJ paper finds
The empirical fit of the New Keynesian Wage Phillips Curve is generally superior for Japan, auhors note; inflation indexation plays a key role in the US, but is less important in Japan, they add
Independence no substitute for rules-based policy
Thomas Cargill summarises the conclusions of four papers by world-leading economists on the issue of central bank governance and finds independence is overrated