Phillips curve
Phillips curve differs depending on labour market – Fed study
Research finds curve to be flat in normal markets and steep in tight ones
Current US wage trends may be here to stay – NY Fed research
Researchers present new tools for predicting wage growth in US
Joachim Nagel on the ECB’s terminal rate, fiscal policy, model relevance and the digital euro
The Deutsche Bundesbank president speaks about compromise on the Governing Council, rolling back PEPP, the need to implement Basel III and the chances of a revised Stability and Growth Pact
Eurozone soft landing depends on Phillips curve – Schnabel
Executive board member says evidence is hard to read, calling for “robust” policy-making
A letter to Andrew Bailey
As the Bank of England struggles to bring inflation down, Jagjit Chadha warns the governor not to let markets take control
Book notes: The Federal Reserve: a new history, by Robert L Hetzel
This book should become the standard reference for scholars
Steeper Phillips curve cannot fully explain inflation surge – IMF paper
Structural factors have led to some steepening but it is not the full story, authors say
NBER paper proposes ‘resurrecting’ non-linear Phillips curve
Original version of the curve is “strongly non-linear” and helps explain current inflation, authors say
Edmund Phelps and the search for a ‘new economy’
The Nobel Prize winner helped lay the foundations of modern macroeconomics. Now he is concerned something is deeply wrong with how policy-makers think about the economy
BIS paper lays out ‘two-regime’ model of inflation
Framework could help central banks recognise and respond to bouts of higher inflation
Bank of Thailand governor calls for better inflation model
Phillips curve model under-predicts inflation, argues governor Sethaput
Book notes: Yellen, by Jon Hilsenrath
This book offers new insights into the tough decisions and tremendous efforts Yellen has made as a pre-eminent economic policy-maker
How central bank mistakes after 2019 led to inflation
Central banks must acknowledge their own mistakes and outline concrete steps to restore the public’s confidence in their ability to ensure price stability, write Graeme Wheeler and Bryce Wilkinson*
Labour supply key to understanding inflation, Shin tells G20
Understanding labour market is critical task for policy-makers, BIS head of research says
Top central bankers admit inflation models fell short
Reliance on Phillips curve and demand-driven models may have created blind spots
Fed paper argues capitalism killed the Phillips curve
Shift in the balance of power between capital and labour likely to hold down inflation, authors find
Is a bond market crisis imminent?
Central banks need careful action and a good dose of luck if they are to avoid financial instability
Lifetime achievement: Stanley Fischer
Fischer has had a profound impact on monetary economics and central banking during his prolific career
Fed officials debate risks of a ‘hot economy’
Academics and policy-makers weigh up whether economy is now overheating
Larry Summers on stagflation risks, lessons from Delphi and never-ending ‘punch’
The former US Treasury secretary speaks about fiscal ‘overexpansion’, Fed/Treasury debt discord, the pitfalls of ‘unknown unknowns’ and central bankers ‘unable’ to remove the ‘punchbowl’
Goodhart, Gopinath and Lippi disagree on inflation
Central banks lack tools to deal with inflation, Goodhart warns, but IMF chief economist disagrees