Macroeconomics
Do central bank governors make good prime ministers?
Mark Carney may become latest to make the leap, but the record elsewhere has been mixed
Large geopolitical shocks have outsized economic impact – paper
Researchers find non-linearities, which amplify effects on economy
People willing to pay more to curb business cycle – study
Survey data challenges assertion that consumers would only make minimal sacrifices
Fed governors differ on best way to deal with Trump uncertainty
Waller says monetary policy can’t be “put on hold”, but Bowman calls for wait-and-see approach
Eurozone ‘not in a recession at all’ – Cipollone
ECB vice-president says there is “room to cut”, digital euro work continues and bitcoin is not gold
BoJ raises policy rate to highest level since 2008
Policy-makers raise inflation forecasts and signal further rate rises
Inflation uncertainty spills over into US – Fed study
Lack of clarity over input costs and interest rates leads to lower levels of investment, study finds
PBoC holds key lending rates
Move comes after China hit 5% growth target for 2024, but analysts expect further easing this year
NBER paper explores sources of ‘geoeconomic power’
Authors write of “urgent need” to understand “new era of geoeconomic rivalry”
Fed’s anecdotal survey correlates with economic data – research
Study says Beige Book’s “soft” data is “actually quite firm”
PBoC suspends government bond purchases
China's central bank moves after “persistent excess demand” causes yields to hit record lows
PBoC to issue record amount of bills in Hong Kong
Central bank to auction 60 billion yuan of bills in territory amid weakening renminbi
Bigger cities do not mean much greater growth – study
Benefits of agglomeration are “surprisingly little”, NBER paper argues
Higher tariffs would hurt US allies as well as its foes – research
However, research says country would be largely shielded from impact of geopolitical fragmentation
PBoC vows to cut reserve requirements and interest rates
Officials pledge to keep monetary policy “moderately loose” and support capital markets
China holds benchmark lending rates
One- and five-year loan prime rates unchanged after authorities pledge to loosen policy next year
Economics Benchmarks 2024 – executive summary
The benchmark drills into model design features as well as staffing, research and AI
Economics Benchmarks 2024 report – making models work
The benchmarks this year include more granular details on key model design features
Stiglitz offers alternatives to standard theories of economic fluctuations
Nobel prize winner argues that endogenously driven variations are key to understanding economies
China shifts to ‘moderately loose’ monetary policy stance
Officials also vow to pursue “more proactive” fiscal stance next year
Heterogeneous agents and non-linearities rare in main models
Semi-structural models continue to be dominant choice of main forecast model at central banks