Financial crisis
Unemployment strongest predictor of mortgage default in the US
Atlanta Fed research finds that individual unemployment increases the probability of mortgage default by 5 to 13 percentage points compared with average sample
Swelling profits explain rebound in risk appetite, San Fran Fed paper suggests
Research indicates corporate profit growth explains 40% of the decline in the spread between risky and risk-free bonds, according to economic letter by research vice-president
Fed urges big banks to improve internal capital planning
Federal Reserve says lenders must strengthen methods for assessing risks; reveals 18 biggest US lenders face challenges in one or more areas
BIS paper weighs up early-warning indicators
Working paper examines which indicators are most effective at foreshadowing banking crises; uses a new statistical method based on particular policy requirements
Volcker rule in its ‘purest form' necessary to curb derivatives speculation
Under pressure from banks and hedge funds, the definition of ‘hedging' in the final Volcker rule could be so broad as to allow unchecked speculation dressed up as hedging, Vembar Ranganathan argues
Competition makes mutuals safer, commercial banks riskier
Bank of Korea research paper shows higher concentration in a less competitive loan market has increased default risks of mutual savings banks since the recent crisis
Central bankers should be wary of their political bargain with government
Central bankers appear ‘spellbound’ by governments keen to give them new regulatory powers despite concerns about their ability to deliver either stable monetary or financial policy in the future
ECB conflicted by Cyprus bail-in
The ECB’s failure to secure a bail-out for the Cypriot banking system changes the template for sovereign rescue in the eurozone. It also has implications for a central bank that appears conflicted
A status report on Dodd-Frank and the Volcker rule
As the US and Europe move closer to co-operating on derivatives legislation, Vembar Ranganathan looks at the status of Dodd-Frank implementation aimed at curbing excesses in the derivatives market
International banks pose risk to global financial system, NY Fed paper finds
Evidence from 2007 suggests banks can more easily deal with a credit crunch in their home jurisdiction than they can overseas, which could be a weak point in the global system, paper finds
‘Striking similarities' between eurozone and the pre-1914 gold standard
Both monetary arrangements provide underdeveloped peripheral countries with easy access to capital from the core countries, triggering asset price booms via the banking system in peripheral countries
Central Bank of Ireland director says it will take ‘some time' to get out of crisis
Fiona Muldoon adds the task now is putting together a business model for Ireland that ‘expands on parts of the economy not built on buying and selling houses to each other at ever inflated prices'
Consumers' inferior bargain position ‘largest issue to be tackled'
RBI's Deepali Pant Joshi says financial crisis had ‘highlighted the importance of financial consumer protection for the long-term stability of the global financial system'
European credit growth strongly related to net debt inflows, ECB paper finds
Analysis indicates there is a strong international dimension to the determination of national credit growth rates
Crisis altered ‘traditional factor' impact on EM capital flows, new paper finds
According to the authors, the crisis ‘brought very important changes in terms of degree, size and volatility of capital flows to emerging markets'
Bernanke: Past century shows ‘central banking doctrine and practice are never static'
Fed chief added recent crisis has underscored the need to strengthen and better integrate US monetary policy and financial stability frameworks
Finland economist provides euro crisis ‘view from the north'
Banking union will be key to avoiding a repeat of the eurozone sovereign debt crisis, writes Bank of Finland economist; dealing with the ‘legacy' of weak balance sheets is a ‘key open issue'
ECB’s Asmussen urges greater efforts at global policy co-ordination
Executive board member says globalisation has led to greater interconnectedness and many more sources of risk, but institutions have not kept pace with the demanding environment
QE was ‘a step in the dark’, Rajan tells BIS
Former IMF chief economist says decision to engage in quantitative easing was based on little evidence and influenced by politics, while the full consequences remain unclear
FDIC chief economist highlights factors behind community bank failure
Richard Brown says community banks play a ‘crucial role’ in the US financial system; presents research identifying common factors behind those that failed during various financial crises
RBA research analyses factors driving US credit crunch
Working paper finds shutdown of the securitisation market explains a ‘significant share’ of the credit tightening in the US in the run-up to the global financial crisis
Fischer gives high marks to Bernanke and Draghi
Outgoing Bank of Israel governor Stanley Fischer believes the world owes a great debt to Fed chairman Ben Bernanke and praises ECB president Mario Draghi; says Israel can live with side effects of QE
BoJ’s Kuroda highlights 'increasing attention' on capital controls
Bank of Japan governor notes greater understanding of volatile capital flows as a channel for financial shock transmission; says banking union may be plagued by 'financial trilemma'