Expectations
Is there a path between the Covid abyss and chasm of financial risk?
Macro-prudential policies are being used to prevent economies from falling into the Covid abyss while also ensuring that a correction in ever-higher asset prices do not crush the economy. Are both objectives achievable?
Georgia’s Gvenetadze on implementing an aggressive reform agenda
The National Bank of Georgia governor speaks about efforts to improve monetary policy, financial infrastructure, financial literacy, transparency and ESG
Frank Smets on the ECB’s strategy review
The ECB’s DG of economics explains how expectations, communication, fiscal dominance, climate change and the Fed’s actions will be factored into the ECB’s delayed strategy review
Marshall Islands readies to make waves in digital currency
Island nation ready to issue blockchain-based national currency if its new government gives the go-ahead, chairman of foundation says
Fed’s new framework splits opinion
Former Fed officials offer mixed reactions to average inflation targeting, with most calling for the US central bank to refine its communication
Haldane makes case against ‘economic anxiety’
Communication essential to avoid caution “morphing into fear and fatalism”, says BoE chief economist
Fed’s new framework has had little impact on expectations – NBER paper
Early evidence suggests few people heard the announcement and fewer understood it
Broadbent dismisses concerns over monetary financing
High debt and aggressive easing do not equate to monetary financing, says Bank of England deputy
Colombia cuts rates to record-low 2%
Below-target inflation allows new central bank action to boost growth
Raising inflation expectations may depress growth – Jackson Hole paper
More nuanced communication would help public understand state of the economy, say researchers
James Bullard on the Fed’s policy review, FSOC and forecasting jobs data
St Louis Fed president discusses his support for average inflation targeting, his concerns about US Treasuries market function, non-bank regulatory weakness and negative rates, as well as the unexpected success in using Homebase data to predict highly…
Improvements in US consumer expectations halt in July
Households more pessimistic as Covid-19 continues to spread, New York Fed survey reveals
Peter Praet on Europe’s Covid-19 responses
The former ECB chief economist talks about threats to financial stability, negative rates, common debt issuance and steps to improve the EMU
NGFS offers concrete next steps to assess climate vulnerabilities
New climate risk scenarios will be incorporated into Bank of England stress tests and Bundesbank economic modelling, write Sarah Breeden and Sabine Mauderer
Should the BoE go negative?
Much research into negative rates suggests central banks should have little to fear, but there are plenty of caveats
Iran’s race towards monetary policy reform faces high hurdle reality
The Majlis Research Center’s Tohid Atashbar says positive outcomes from the Iranian central bank’s fast-tracking of monetary policy reform – made in response to Covid-19 and US sanctions – may prove difficult to deliver
Researchers say hitting lower bound has little impact on expectations
Persistent deviation from inflation target can still undermine long-term expectations, authors say
Central banking enters a new era
Central banks face a delicate balancing act to preserve their reputations as they evolve into ‘buyers of last resort’ and some of their actions appear functionally equivalent to ‘monetary financing’
Rising to the challenge – Reserve management in an uncertain world
Amid unprecedented measures being taken by central banks and governments to combat the global Covid‑19 pandemic, BlackRock‘s Stephan Meschenmoser, Laszlo Tisler and Crystal Wan compare and contrast BlackRock’s model portfolio against its high-grade…
The ECB, the lockdown and the monetary financing lock
The eurozone’s central bank may need to break its prohibition on monetary financing to fight the pandemic
Fed set to adopt ‘elements’ of price-level targeting
Covid-19 could act as a catalyst for a Janet Yellen-supported Fed move to adopt elements of price-level targeting. But questions remain about the timing of such a move
Bank of Italy paper examines expectations’ effects on spending
Researchers find inflation levels affect strength of income and intertemporal substitution effects
The Belt and Road Initiative 2020 Survey – A more sustainable road to growth?
The third annual Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) survey reveals that central banks view BRI investment as sustainable compared with other forms of external debt, particularly given it is often proportionally less significant. Despite growing global trade…
El-Erian on Covid-19 policy risks, ‘zombie’ markets and central bank capture
Former Pimco chief says Fed move into high yield is a step too far, new rules needed on leverage and false liquidity, and narrow window emerges for central banks to shed some of their policy load