Expectations
Central banking amid uncertainty and Trump 2.0
Deglobalisation set to challenge the central banking orthodoxy of the past 40 years
Portraits on banknotes: a study of the gender gap
Only Australia’s currency has gender parity; overall, less than 10% of portraited banknotes – excluding Elizabeth II – feature female images
Mamo Mihretu on the radical reform of central banking in Ethiopia
Ethiopian governor speaks about simultaneous monetary policy and exchange rate reform, opening the country’s financial system and a fundamental reset for Africa’s second most populous economy
The Fed can afford to loosen policy
As (nearly) the world’s most hawkish central bank, the Federal Reserve is right to start monetary loosening, writes Steve Kamin
LatAm rate hikes consistent with pre-Covid strategy – BIS paper
Region’s central banks did not become more hawkish during pandemic, researchers argue
All eyes on the Fed
The US central bank faces a challenging path to fulfil its mandated goals
Banknotes: July to September 2024
A round-up of news and salient issues that have affected central bankers in the past three months
Campos Neto on inflation targeting, independence and the future of financial intermediation
The Brazilian governor speaks with Christopher Jeffery about tackling inflation, the need for financial autonomy, and redefining the financial landscape with open finance, programmable Pix, deposit tokenisation and sound cross-border payments governance
Neural networks are ‘powerful tool’ for non-linear analysis – paper
Machine learning technique highlights downsides to inflation target ranges
Full-scale war with Hezbollah is a tail-end event – Bank of Israel deputy
Andrew Abir says central bank has advised government to ensure adequate fiscal space as it expects war to last longer and revises its growth and inflation forecasts
Turkish inflation falls for first time in eight months
Cooling prices could herald disinflation trend despite negative real rates
Malaysia’s Rasheed expects a “bumpy road” for EM currencies
Governor Abdul Rasheed Ghaffour says BNM will intervene if needed ahead of future Fed cut; rules out capital controls but has encouraged institutions to repatriate earnings
BNM’s Rasheed on inflation, growth and currency performance in emerging markets
Bank Negara Malaysia’s governor speaks about balancing inflation and growth, supporting the ringgit, multilateral currency settlement and greening Islamic finance
‘Selective memory’ helps explain expectation de-anchoring – paper
Authors build model around three “regularities of human recall”
BoJ hawkishness due to weak yen belies wage inflation concerns
The contrast in Japan-US economic, price and wage performance and their implications for monetary policies
Lkhagvasuren Byadran on geopolitics, gold and 100 years of central banking on the steppe
Bank of Mongolia governor Lkhagvasuren Byadran speaks about monetary and financial reform, embracing AI and fintech, and Mongolia’s new SWF
Are low-level inflation targets still fit for purpose?
Geostrategic shifts make the case for a narrow price target less compelling
Book notes: Fintech: finance, technology and regulation, by Ross Buckley, Douglas Arner and Dirk Zetzsche
An excellent overview of fintech 3.0 and 4.0 that also includes suggestions for smart regulation
Communications Benchmarks 2024 – model banks analysis
Additional breakdowns of the data highlight differences in emerging market and advanced economies
Cecilia Skingsley on monetary policy tech and a unified ledger
Head of the BIS Innovation Hub speaks about tokenisation, CBDCs and the ‘black box problem’ in AI
Profit inflation and monetary policy: weighing the evidence
Biagio Bossone says profit inflation needs monetary ‘fuel’ to rise – but fiscal policy is the best fix, should governments have the ‘guts’