Emerging markets
Fed researchers find little QE impact on emerging market capital flows
Discussion paper finds Fed’s quantitative easing has not had a statistically significant impact on net capital flows to emerging markets, although behaviour changed post-crisis
Policy-maker prudence can't help early warning efficacy, IMF paper finds
Working paper finds parametric early-warning systems are preferable to non-parametric; greater prudence lets policy-makers call more crisis episodes correctly, but at the cost of more false alarms
IMF paper examines emerging market counter-cyclical monetary policy
Emerging markets should target inflation for its counter-cyclical benefits as well as output variability, researchers find
G-20 report says move from stabilisation to growth requires ‘difficult balancing act’
G-20 meeting report urges carefully calibrated fiscal tightening to ‘nurture’ recovery; backs accommodative monetary policy and says emerging markets should use rapid growth to build buffers
IMFC advocates ‘pragmatic’ approach to resisting capital flows
Committee of the IMF says easing by advanced economies is justified; emerging markets should use a variety of tools to lean against the resulting capital inflows
Lagarde highlights emergence of ‘three-speed’ global economy
IMF managing director says differences between regions are ‘starker than ever’ as emerging markets leave many advanced economies behind
Norway’s SWF sees large returns after ‘major strategic changes’
Annual report for 2012 reveals pension fund saw second-best performance since its creation; investments diversified away from Europe and into emerging markets
Perception of EM risk reduced by central bank safety net, say investors
Large foreign exchange reserves held by emerging market central banks makes investing in those countries attractive, say panellists at FX Invest Europe
Dutch paper says foreign banks can help or harm developing markets
Working paper finds foreign-owned banks in developing countries can provide cheaper and higher quality financial services, but may also transmit shocks across borders
IMF board split on quota reform options
Disagreement among IMF executive board members over whether more emphasis on emerging markets is needed, with ‘considerable support’ for increasing weight of GDP in quota formula
IMF predicts chequered growth performances in 2013
Updated World Economic Outlook forecasts wide disparities between countries’ growth performances in the next year; overall estimates revised down since October
NY Fed research plays down QE impact on emerging markets
Staff report says large-scale asset purchases have a relatively small impact on capital flows to emerging economies in the aggregate, but finds substantial variation between countries
IMF research examines ‘borrower effects’ during crisis
Working paper constructs index to assess the contribution of risky borrower portfolios in tightened overall credit conditions during a financial crisis
Norway paper finds emerging markets drive oil-price volatility
Norges Bank working paper finds that changes in emerging market demand for oil has more than doubled the impact on real oil prices and production compared with the developed world
PBoC’s Yi urges IMF to complete quota and governance reforms
Deputy governor of the People’s Bank of China calls on remaining IMF members to approve 2010 quota and governance reforms; US has yet to accept the changes
IMF develops flexible approach to funding to meet drawdowns, annual report says
Annual report says IMF has taken steps to improve the flexibility of funding instruments in face of ‘fragile recovery’; expects continued strong demand for funding
Korean governor criticises local crisis resolution
Choongsoo Kim says a local resolution to the European debt crisis could harm emerging markets; should harness the growth in these regions instead
ECB paper analyses factors driving portfolio flows
Working paper studies time-varying drivers of capital flows to emerging markets; finds investors are more sensitive to local factors during market stress, while extreme stress can cause a panic
BIS raises fears over lower global growth trajectory
Bank for International Settlements Quarterly Review says global growth outlook deteriorated further over the quarter; warns of diminishing benefits to unconventional monetary policy
IMF paper warns fiscal policy is not sufficient to counter capital surges
Working paper finds countercyclical fiscal policy would not have been able to fully counter large capital inflows into many countries in emerging Europe before the financial crisis
IMF paper studies emerging market bond spreads
Working paper tests different explanatory variables for emerging market bond spreads over time; finds importance may change based on business cycle and external factors
Bank of Finland paper examines reasons for business cycle co-movement
Discussion paper suggests thinking of growth performance of economies as ‘coupled’ or ‘de-coupled’ is overly simplistic; identifies a number of factors contributing to interdependence
Central Bank of Chile paper tests evidence of asset price booms
Researcher finds evidence that capital flows drive asset price booms; identifies factors that mitigate this effect but says capital controls are not effective
IMF paper evaluates reserve adequacy in emerging markets
Working paper studies the determinants of reserve holdings in emerging markets and small islands; proposes measure of reserve adequacy