Policy-maker prudence can't help early warning efficacy, IMF paper finds
A new IMF paper looks at episodes of currency crises that took place in selected emerging markets between January 1995 and December 2011, to compare the predictive power of parametric and non-parametric early warning systems (EWSs).
The paper, Comparing Parametric and Non-parametric Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises in Emerging Market Economies by Fabio Comelli, finds the parametric EWS achieves superior out-of-sample results compared with the non-parametric EWS, as the total
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