Research
NY Fed paper sheds light on causal determinants of inflation expectations
Federal Reserve Bank of New York study says consumers may be revising their inflation expectations in response to inaccurate information
Atlanta Fed paper finds low elasticity of intertemporal substitution
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta study shows levels of consumption growth are not very responsive to interest rate movements
Precautionary motives drive rapid build-up of reserves in EMEs, says IMF paper
Fund study shows stockpiling of international reserves in emerging markets are motivated by insurance against capital account, rather than current account shocks
Monetary policy can ease sovereign risk, says IMF paper
Fund study shows sovereign risk becomes a critical determinant of macroeconomic outcomes if the central bank is constrained in counteracting higher risk premiums
Core inflation is a poor forecaster of future price levels, says Brazilian research
Central Bank of Brazil study finds core inflation is a poor directional indicator for future headline inflation
Bank of Canada paper builds alternative oil price forecast scenarios
Bank of Canada study generates forecast scenarios providing more accurate real-time analysis of oil price risks
Debt ceiling acts as fiscal stabiliser, says IMF paper
Fund study shows the introduction of a debt ceiling may reduce the pro-cyclicality of fiscal policy and consumption volatility
Financial taxes can bolster macro-prudential policy, says IMF paper
Fund study shows counter-cyclical tools should be incorporated to enrich the broader macro-prudential policy framework in Korea
Capital shortfalls explain sharp fall in bank lending, says Bank of Spain paper
Bank of Spain study finds evidence that supply-side factors are restraining loan growth to non-financial private sector in Spain
Fiscal stabilisation policy is redundant, says Bullard
St Louis Federal Reserve study says fiscal policy is ill-suited as a stabilisation policy and that monetary policy, even at the zero bound, is a more effective tool
Fiscal sustainability indicators have limited effect on CDS spreads, says IMF paper
Fund study shows sovereign credit default swap spreads are driven largely by short-term liquidity conditions and large-scale long-term bond purchases by major central banks
US housing prices strongly influenced by news, says Bank of Portugal paper
Bank of Portugal study says news shocks explain sizable fraction of variation in house prices and housing investment in the US over the past four decades
Credit rating agencies pose stability risks, says IMF paper
Fund study shows opinions of rating agencies can influence financial stability through impact on sovereign funding costs
Governments can safeguard economy against supply shocks, says National Bank of Denmark paper
National Bank of Denmark study says financial system structures and government support are important factors in shielding the economy from supply shocks
Output volatility rises with firing costs, says Central Bank of Peru paper
Central Bank of Peru study shows reducing firing costs in emerging markets to level consistent with developed nations can lower output volatility by 15%
IMF paper on optimal monetary policy frameworks under price distortions
Fund study shows sectoral inflation targeting and output gap stabilisation outperform strict headline inflation targeting in the presence of subsidised prices for goods
Macro-stress tests not suitable as early warning systems, says BIS paper
Bank for International Settlements study says macro-stress tests are ineffective tools for identifying vulnerabilities in the financial sector during tranquil times, and could even mislead supervisors
Central banks' financing of governments warranted in some cases, says IMF paper
Fund study outlines appropriate framework to enable central banks in developing countries to lend to governments in the short-term
Quasi-fiscal policies pose inflationary risks, warns IMF paper
Fund study says quantitative easing can lead to excessive inflation if fiscal authorities do not fully back operations to expand central banks' balance sheets
ECB paper identifies substantial shift in invoicing patterns following euro adoption
European Central Bank study shows Norway's trading partners participating in the eurozone used their own currency more frequently than before the introduction of the euro
Belgium central bank paper reviews effects of trade liberalisation in low-wage countries
National Bank of Belgium study shows low-wage countries experience less movement in labour and output to high-skill-intensity industries as a result of trade liberalisation policies
Fed paper models financial stress index
US Federal Reserve study discusses several factors that should be considered when building financial stress indexes
BoJ report warns of pause in economic activity
Bank of Japan’s Regional Economic Report for January 2012 shows signs that pace of economic growth is moderating
CNB paper models domestic bank liquidity stress tests
Czech National Bank study shows the Czech banking system is resilient to stressed scenarios mimicking the 2008 and 2009 international liquidity crisis