Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City
Kansas Fed paper looks at conditional forward guidance
Date-based forward guidance would be effective without yield curve control, research says
Fed’s Jackson Hole conference hit by temporary venue closure
Kansas City Fed is considering implications and will release details when available
Women affected more by job losses in US lockdown – Kansas Fed
Roughly 60% of job losses were to women in the first half of March, researchers find
Kansas Fed paper looks at weak US fraud controls
US has much higher ‘in-person fraud’ rates than three other developed economies, researcher says
Summers and Stansbury warn of ‘black hole’ as central bankers debate solutions
Economists say they hope for revolutionary thinking at Jackson Hole conference – “but we are not holding our breath”
Foreign banks in US made sharpest reserve cuts – Kansas Fed paper
Researchers look at impact of Fed’s quantitative tightening on US banks’ assets
Kansas Fed develops real-time GDP tracker
The tracker builds on previous work by combining two forecast models
Cain withdraws candidacy for Fed governorship
Trump’s pick faced widespread opposition due to partisan views aligned with the White House
Equity market uncertainty can reduce real GDP – researcher
Equity market volatility in Q4 2018 could reduce the policy rate path by 50bp, says researcher
US equity prices affect consumer and business confidence, researcher finds
Results highlight risks to macroeconomy of recent equity slump
Machine learning model outperforms professional forecasters
The model may uncover new relationships in data that were previously overlooked, researcher says
Technology shocks unbalance job market – paper
A technology shock that permanently raises productivity leads to unemployment, authors say
Senior Fed officials split over the state of US job market
Regional presidents and FOMC members see US under, approaching or beyond full employment
‘Job polarisation’ drives US men out of labour markets – Kansas City Fed paper
Technological change and globalisation reduce demand for skills of young and unskilled men
Demography, tech reduce US natural unemployment rate – paper
Baby boomers remain active longer, and older workers record lower levels of unemployment
Financial distress in the US is concentrated in a small percentage of consumers
Around 10% of consumers account for 50% of all distress events, research finds
Neural network can beat conventional forecasts – Kansas City Fed research
Deep learning model outperforms Survey of Professional Forecasters at all horizons
People: RBNZ continues reshuffle; Fed appoints payments leader
Mills to fill Bascand’s shoes at RBNZ as assistant governor moves to financial stability; St Louis Fed vice-president to initiate faster payments project for the US central bank; and more
Kansas City Fed explores sources of wage dispersion in the US
Paper explores relative importance of “lifetime differences” and “match-specific” factors
Kansas Fed paper looks at impact of recessions on US workers
Participation rate of “prime-age” workers most likely to vary with business cycle, paper says
Kohn worried about weight of expectations on Federal Reserve
The weight of expectations on the US Fed may be too high; the US is not as well placed as the UK to tackle another major crisis, says the former Fed vice-chair
Balance sheet not an ‘active’ policy tool for normal times, says Fed’s George
Reductions in Fed’s balance sheet should be on “autopilot”, says George; establishing a “sound framework” will be important
People: Riksbank’s Nessén takes on new advisory role; Albizu retains CMCA chair
Riksbank’s head of monetary policy takes on new board advisory role; Dominican governor reappointed by peers to serve as the CMCA’s chairman for another six years; and more
Kansas Fed’s George: 2017 will be ‘significant’ year for US payments
Esther George says major milestones in faster payment project will be passed next year – although some of the hardest work will follow afterwards