Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)
Fischer spells out uncertainty surrounding impact of global volatility
Fischer says ‘modest overshoot’ of the longer-run unemployment rate would be appropriate, ahead of this month’s jobs data; sees benefit in maintaining balance sheet ‘for a time’
US Fed committee keeps close eye on global developments
Federal Open Market Committee watching impact of global events on risks to its economic outlook; notes mixed developments as it holds interest rate target
Some FOMC members still see ‘considerable’ risks to inflation forecasts
The Federal Reserve’s decision to increase the federal funds rate target was a ‘close call’ in the view of ‘some’ FOMC members; mixed views among governors and presidents on inflation outlook
Cleveland Fed president ‘fully supported’ rate hike
Loretta Mester expresses support for FOMC’s decision in December, but notes greater importance of policy path than date of lift-off for macroeconomic performance
Yellen warns not to 'overblow' liftoff as Federal Reserve raises rates
Federal Open Market Committee will keep close eye on ‘actual and expected progress’ toward 2% inflation, after embarking on first tightening cycle since 2006 with 25bp hike
Yellen signals growing confidence ahead of Fed decision
Fed chair expects some key headwinds to inflation to diminish next year; continued improvements in labour market and stable expectations help ‘bolster’ her confidence in a return to target
‘Gradual and low’ may be new normal for Fed, Brainard says
Lael Brainard says lower neutral interest rates and stubborn inflation make it likely the federal funds rate will need to be tightened ‘more gradually and to a lower level’ than in the past
Trinidad and Tobago aims to stay a step ahead of the Fed
Jwala Rambarran tells Central Banking the central bank must remain ‘ahead of the curve’ and ensure a ‘strong enough’ rate differential between assets denominated in local and US currency
Shift in FOMC language intended to show December hike ‘may well become appropriate’
Minutes from October meeting reveal thinking behind change in language; a ‘couple’ of members raised concerns the change could be misinterpreted as a stronger signal than it was
Dallas Fed’s Kaplan expects policy to ‘remain accommodative for some time’
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas president says FOMC was ‘prudent’ to wait for more data in past few months; it is ‘probable’ rates will be lifted gradually
Turkish paper finds Fed staff forecasts superior to rivals
Working paper finds forecasts in the ‘Greenbook’ were consistently more accurate than their commercial equivalents between 1974 and 2009
Challenging crosscurrents from divergent monetary policy
Divergent monetary policies around the world and challenges linked to China’s economic rebalancing present central bankers with some opportunities as well as numerous threats
Fed rate rise given the ‘amber light’
Federal Reserve holds rates but hints there could be action at the December meeting; analysts still seeing mixed signals
John Taylor and William Dudley clash on Fed strategy
Stanford professor John Taylor questions Fed’s communications; New York Fed president William Dudley sets out case against following more rules-based policy
Heterogeneous beliefs may weaken effect of forward guidance, paper argues
Fixed-date and state-contingent guidance by the Federal Reserve led some market expectations to converge, but heterogeneous beliefs about inflation and consumption persisted
Chicago Fed president wants more evidence of inflation
Evans backs an ‘extra-patient approach’ to monetary policy as he airs concerns over inflation outlook and ‘asymmetric’ risks; assesses economy more cautiously than FOMC colleagues
Fed presidents talk up prospect of 2015 hike
Richmond, St Louis and San Francisco reserve bank presidents offer thoughts in wake of last week’s decision to hold rates; all suggest a hike in October or December will likely be appropriate
Boston Fed president compares forthcoming rate hikes with past tightening cycles
Eric Rosengren finds this tightening cycle is likely to differ from those of 1994 and 2004, in that rates are set to rise more gradually and stop at a lower level
Lockhart still expects rate hike this year
Atlanta Fed president still expects Fed to start tightening ‘sometime’ this year but market expectations of a September hike have fallen
FOMC inching towards rate hike, minutes hint
Minutes of July meeting show some members are still concerned that labour market and inflation data are not strong enough for a hike, but several think the economy is nearly ready
FOMC forecasts perform better in short- than long-term, Fed paper finds
Forecasts prepared ahead of FOMC meetings from 1997-2008 considerably outperform benchmarks at short horizons, but the results are much more mixed in the longer term
New York Fed researchers shine light on process of giving policy advice
Economists including head of research explain the process of briefing William Dudley ahead of FOMC meetings
Lockhart says Fed liftoff is ‘close’
Atlanta Fed president highlights ‘cumulative evidence’ of economic recovery and says he is willing to sanction the first rate increase in the face of ‘mixed data’
Fed mistakenly releases confidential staff forecasts
Economic projections show staff expect a more gradual pace of rate increases than most Fed officials; supposed to be released to public with a five-year lag